***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.07.2016.-31.07.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 12.5 19.5 9.8 121.4 70.6 54.0 3.2 8.0 16.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 11.8 17.1 9.0 114.2 69.2 52.4 3.2 7.8 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 11.9 14.8 8.2 104.2 65.4 51.0 2.8 7.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 12.6 17.2 7.8 112.8 67.8 53.4 3.8 8.7 16.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.5 7.6 5.0 67.5 51.5 39.2 3.5 7.2 13.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 3.9 10.1 7.2 78.0 57.9 43.4 3.3 7.4 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 10.7 16.9 9.8 120.3 71.0 50.9 3.2 7.3 14.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 17.4 12.9 6.2 64.6 51.3 42.4 5.7 12.3 22.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 11.3 15.8 7.6 104.1 66.6 55.7 3.3 7.8 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 13.9 14.4 7.6 83.5 59.6 49.9 4.3 9.7 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 3.6 6.5 5.4 62.5 49.6 40.0 2.9 6.6 12.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.9 6.5 4.4 55.1 46.9 38.5 3.0 7.4 14.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.5 5.9 4.2 51.1 47.8 37.3 3.2 6.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.6 17.8 9.2 92.5 62.5 49.5 4.8 10.8 20.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.3 11.4 6.5 111.6 67.7 47.1 2.9 6.0 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.6 7.9 6.3 80.7 57.6 46.3 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 14.7 25.6 10.7 127.7 72.8 55.7 4.6 10.6 19.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.8 15.2 7.0 76.0 56.0 46.1 4.9 11.7 22.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.4 19.9 8.8 115.6 69.5 53.5 3.6 8.7 17.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 4.6 6.9 5.8 54.2 45.5 37.1 3.8 8.2 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 18.4 19.4 9.2 123.3 71.2 61.9 3.8 8.7 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.1 22.7 9.8 128.9 72.3 52.2 4.2 9.6 18.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 13.1 19.4 9.3 115.7 69.4 53.9 3.7 8.8 17.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.5 13.9 7.4 85.6 60.3 48.5 4.1 9.3 17.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 11.8 11.0 7.3 77.0 57.3 45.4 3.2 8.0 15.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.0 7.4 4.9 57.2 48.6 39.2 3.8 7.8 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.7 14.9 9.8 105.9 65.7 50.6 3.4 7.9 15.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 11.6 16.0 7.2 114.0 68.6 50.8 3.7 7.9 14.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.8 19.0 7.8 74.6 54.4 46.0 8.3 16.4 27.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 12.7 19.5 9.5 121.2 70.9 53.1 3.7 8.5 16.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------