***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.08.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 2.2 10.8 8.3 115.6 70.2 44.8 2.5 5.3 9.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 3.6 17.1 7.1 135.5 74.4 45.4 3.8 7.6 12.9 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 2.5 13.4 8.0 121.9 71.2 44.6 2.7 6.1 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 3.0 15.0 7.0 108.2 68.1 40.0 3.7 7.8 13.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 74 26 0 100 2.1 9.0 6.3 100.5 65.6 37.3 2.8 5.4 9.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.2 12.1 8.3 97.8 65.1 39.9 3.5 7.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.8 10.7 7.3 126.3 72.4 43.5 3.0 5.5 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 3.8 13.7 7.9 107.3 67.2 40.4 4.1 7.9 13.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 2.9 10.5 6.2 91.8 62.9 40.5 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 3.6 11.7 7.9 96.6 64.1 40.5 4.0 7.6 12.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 2.6 11.3 6.2 103.2 66.5 38.0 3.6 6.7 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 2.7 9.8 6.4 109.9 68.4 39.4 3.3 5.8 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 2.5 10.3 6.5 91.0 63.8 37.5 2.7 5.9 11.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.8 15.9 9.9 110.8 68.9 46.5 5.0 9.1 14.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 69 31 0 100 2.4 9.7 5.0 89.7 63.0 36.6 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 2.2 9.5 6.4 94.6 64.4 36.9 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.1 15.2 7.8 136.7 74.8 46.0 4.1 7.4 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.2 11.7 9.5 98.1 64.4 41.8 4.6 7.9 12.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 2.8 14.7 7.0 133.7 74.0 46.1 2.9 6.3 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.5 11.6 9.8 101.8 65.2 42.5 3.4 6.9 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.7 12.4 7.0 102.1 66.0 41.0 3.0 6.8 12.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 4.4 17.2 8.1 143.2 75.9 47.2 4.7 8.2 12.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 2.2 10.8 7.6 124.5 72.0 46.6 2.3 4.9 8.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 4.4 16.7 9.2 111.0 68.4 45.0 4.7 9.2 15.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 2.4 12.8 8.3 116.7 70.2 43.4 2.9 6.1 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 2.2 8.1 4.8 95.2 63.8 38.4 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 2.1 10.4 8.7 116.4 70.2 44.7 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 2.8 12.7 6.2 95.5 65.0 38.6 3.0 6.9 13.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 4.7 15.1 9.8 96.5 63.8 42.6 5.0 9.5 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.2 11.1 7.4 130.9 73.4 45.3 2.5 5.0 8.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------