***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 14.07.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.07.2016.-14.08.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 48.6 49.7 32.0 95.8 59.1 51.2 23.5 39.1 59.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 45.9 42.3 28.4 88.6 54.9 48.4 22.6 37.6 56.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 48.9 51.1 30.1 96.5 59.6 52.5 29.0 42.4 57.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 54.4 52.8 28.2 89.7 56.6 47.6 27.9 44.8 66.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 40.6 36.4 25.2 84.9 54.5 46.6 19.6 32.3 48.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 48.2 41.6 29.9 81.9 52.3 45.4 25.3 39.2 56.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 21.7 38.4 29.9 89.2 54.8 46.8 20.8 33.9 50.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 62.7 53.4 28.5 80.2 51.1 45.3 32.6 51.7 75.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 45.3 47.5 28.9 93.4 59.1 52.8 25.6 38.9 55.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 54.2 50.2 32.4 87.5 54.9 48.8 26.7 44.4 66.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 41.3 36.8 24.2 82.4 53.9 47.1 18.9 33.0 51.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 45.4 38.0 21.6 76.4 51.1 44.9 22.6 36.9 55.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 37.6 35.3 24.6 80.9 54.8 47.9 19.2 31.2 46.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 63.2 59.4 37.0 89.1 55.7 49.6 33.5 51.8 74.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 19.3 33.3 21.0 80.4 52.8 44.1 18.7 30.9 46.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 36.1 35.9 25.7 86.7 57.1 49.5 19.6 30.5 43.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 49.9 48.2 31.7 90.1 55.5 49.1 31.7 43.7 57.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 58.0 52.3 36.3 87.3 53.2 46.9 33.7 49.3 67.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 48.8 46.9 28.7 91.4 56.6 50.2 22.4 39.0 60.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 50.2 37.8 33.2 74.9 45.1 40.7 28.2 41.8 58.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 47.4 51.7 30.6 98.6 60.8 54.4 28.9 42.1 57.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 48.9 50.3 32.7 97.3 59.1 51.9 30.6 42.9 57.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 43.9 43.7 30.7 93.6 58.2 51.5 22.2 35.7 52.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 58.2 58.4 34.7 93.6 57.8 50.9 31.5 49.0 70.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 50.2 47.0 31.0 86.1 54.7 47.3 28.8 42.4 59.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 38.9 34.2 19.4 78.1 52.2 44.9 19.8 32.2 48.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 47.2 45.0 33.7 90.6 56.4 48.6 23.7 38.3 57.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 46.8 43.8 25.4 87.2 55.8 47.0 23.6 38.0 56.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 74.0 64.8 37.3 84.7 50.7 45.4 45.8 63.8 84.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 41.8 40.9 29.9 94.2 57.6 49.7 20.9 33.9 50.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------