***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 14.7 14.9 18.0 -1.0 32.1 33.2 15.0 15.9 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 14.2 14.4 17.7 -1.2 26.8 28.6 14.8 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 16.1 16.3 17.9 -1.3 25.1 26.7 16.9 18.0 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 12.2 12.5 15.7 -0.7 33.6 34.9 12.5 13.8 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 12.5 12.6 16.2 -1.0 29.1 30.7 12.9 14.0 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 13.2 12.6 13.9 -0.2 43.0 44.0 12.1 12.9 13.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.1 18.0 -1.0 31.8 33.1 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.1 13.8 -0.6 36.6 38.0 7.8 8.9 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 14.3 14.4 16.5 -0.8 32.5 34.1 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.5 14.5 14.8 -0.5 37.1 38.3 14.2 15.1 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 15.2 13.8 16.2 -0.7 33.1 34.9 13.8 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 11.9 12.0 14.8 -0.8 31.1 32.8 12.1 12.9 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.4 15.2 -0.5 37.0 38.9 13.1 14.0 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 14.7 14.8 16.0 -0.9 30.1 31.9 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 16.8 16.1 18.5 -0.3 42.4 43.1 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 14.1 14.3 15.5 -0.8 29.3 31.3 14.5 15.5 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 15.4 15.6 17.5 -1.0 29.2 30.7 15.8 16.8 17.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 13.8 12.5 13.9 -0.7 33.9 35.3 12.4 13.4 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 79 21 0 100 14.3 14.4 17.6 -1.4 23.9 25.8 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 9.6 8.6 12.2 -0.6 35.7 37.2 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 14.0 14.1 17.6 -0.8 32.2 33.7 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 14.1 14.1 17.6 -1.1 26.7 28.5 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 13.5 13.6 17.4 -1.5 21.8 23.5 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 14.5 14.6 16.1 -0.9 30.4 32.1 14.7 15.7 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 13.7 14.1 17.1 -0.9 32.2 33.3 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 13.1 13.4 13.9 -0.6 34.6 36.6 13.3 14.1 14.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 13.9 14.3 17.6 -0.8 34.8 35.6 14.2 15.5 16.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.2 16.5 -0.6 34.7 36.0 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 12.4 13.3 -0.5 37.3 38.4 12.1 13.1 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 14.6 14.7 17.9 -1.3 26.8 28.5 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------