***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 16.5 16.7 20.1 1.1 71.5 68.5 14.9 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 86 14 100 15.8 16.3 19.6 0.7 63.2 60.9 14.8 15.6 16.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 17.9 18.4 19.9 0.7 64.0 61.8 16.9 17.7 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 43 57 100 14.2 14.2 17.2 0.7 65.8 63.3 12.5 13.4 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 14.4 14.7 17.5 0.5 61.6 59.9 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.0 14.9 0.4 60.4 58.5 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 86 14 100 16.3 16.9 19.9 0.9 68.1 65.0 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 85 15 100 9.0 9.3 15.0 0.5 61.7 60.1 8.2 8.8 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 86 14 100 15.6 15.9 17.6 0.5 61.2 59.9 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 86 14 100 15.6 15.9 15.8 0.5 61.6 60.3 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 15.4 15.3 16.8 0.1 51.5 51.6 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.8 16.0 0.4 57.9 56.8 12.8 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.4 15.2 -0.1 46.7 47.8 13.8 14.6 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 16.3 16.7 17.4 0.7 66.0 63.6 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 17.3 17.5 19.0 0.4 59.9 58.6 16.2 17.0 17.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 16.0 15.8 16.2 0.0 50.8 51.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 86 14 100 16.7 17.1 19.4 0.8 65.3 62.4 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 46 54 100 14.7 14.8 15.2 0.8 67.9 65.4 13.1 13.9 14.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 15.9 16.1 19.5 0.5 59.4 57.9 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 39 61 100 10.9 11.1 13.3 1.0 71.7 68.4 9.3 10.1 10.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 15.6 16.0 18.9 0.7 64.9 62.9 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 85 15 100 15.6 15.9 19.4 0.7 63.5 61.3 14.7 15.4 16.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 87 13 100 15.4 15.5 19.3 0.3 56.6 55.5 14.5 15.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 84 16 100 16.2 16.6 17.4 0.6 64.9 62.6 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 16.2 16.3 18.9 1.1 71.0 68.1 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 14.9 14.8 14.7 0.1 52.6 52.5 14.0 14.7 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 16.3 16.7 19.6 1.3 74.4 70.7 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.9 17.5 0.4 58.4 57.1 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 13.7 13.8 14.6 0.8 68.8 66.3 12.2 13.0 13.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 16.1 16.6 19.9 0.7 64.2 61.9 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------