***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 15.2 16.1 19.2 -0.2 45.9 47.0 15.5 16.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 14.8 15.4 18.6 -0.7 36.8 40.5 15.1 16.1 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 60 40 0 100 17.1 17.6 19.2 -0.6 37.6 41.4 17.4 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 12.6 13.4 16.8 -0.2 44.8 46.6 12.8 13.7 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 13.7 14.2 16.5 -0.6 37.3 41.7 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 12.7 13.6 15.0 0.0 49.6 50.1 12.9 13.6 14.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 15.1 15.9 19.0 -0.4 42.4 43.9 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.3 8.9 14.6 -0.4 39.3 43.7 8.6 9.4 10.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 15.0 15.4 16.5 -0.5 38.0 42.3 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 14.9 15.4 15.2 -0.4 40.1 44.2 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 14.4 14.7 16.2 -0.6 34.8 40.3 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 12.7 13.1 15.4 -0.6 36.3 41.6 12.9 13.7 14.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 13.7 14.2 14.5 -0.4 39.5 43.8 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 15.4 15.8 16.4 -0.6 36.3 41.3 15.7 16.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 17.3 16.8 18.5 -0.1 47.6 47.9 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 15.2 15.7 15.5 -0.5 37.9 42.8 15.4 16.3 17.2 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 15.5 16.2 18.5 -0.5 39.9 42.2 15.9 16.6 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 13.1 13.9 14.3 -0.2 44.5 47.4 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 15.0 15.3 18.5 -0.9 32.6 37.7 15.3 16.1 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 9.1 10.2 12.3 0.0 49.4 50.4 9.4 10.3 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 14.7 15.3 18.1 -0.4 40.7 43.7 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 63 37 0 100 14.5 15.0 18.2 -0.8 34.8 39.3 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 14.4 14.6 18.3 -1.0 29.4 35.5 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 15.2 15.7 16.3 -0.5 39.3 43.3 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 14.9 15.8 17.8 -0.1 46.8 47.7 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 13.9 14.6 14.6 -0.3 42.9 46.0 14.1 14.9 15.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 14.9 16.1 18.5 -0.1 48.4 48.5 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 15.1 14.4 17.2 -0.2 44.5 46.4 13.9 14.7 15.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 12.3 13.0 13.8 -0.2 44.0 46.9 12.5 13.3 14.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 15.3 15.8 19.0 -0.6 38.1 41.6 15.6 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------