***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.2 19.8 0.5 59.5 57.4 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.7 19.4 0.3 56.3 55.0 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 18.3 18.2 19.7 0.2 54.4 53.8 17.2 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 14.0 14.3 17.3 0.6 61.8 59.9 12.8 13.7 14.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 14.5 14.4 17.0 0.1 53.1 53.4 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 13.5 13.7 15.3 0.4 59.8 58.9 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 16.0 16.2 19.7 0.6 60.1 57.8 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 9.3 14.9 0.1 52.1 52.2 8.4 9.2 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 15.8 15.7 16.9 0.1 52.7 53.1 14.9 15.6 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 15.6 15.5 15.5 0.2 53.8 53.7 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 15.2 15.0 16.6 0.0 50.1 51.0 14.4 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.4 13.2 15.7 0.0 50.1 51.1 12.6 13.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.4 14.8 0.2 54.0 54.9 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 16.2 16.1 16.8 0.2 54.6 55.0 15.4 16.0 16.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.7 17.0 18.9 0.6 63.4 61.0 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 16.0 15.9 15.8 0.2 53.5 54.1 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.6 19.2 0.5 59.9 57.5 15.7 16.3 16.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 13.9 14.0 14.6 0.3 57.9 57.3 12.8 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 15.9 15.8 19.2 0.1 52.6 52.4 15.0 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 9.8 9.9 12.5 0.5 61.4 59.7 8.9 9.5 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 15.5 15.5 18.5 0.2 54.8 54.4 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 15.4 15.3 19.0 0.3 55.6 54.4 14.5 15.1 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 15.3 15.0 19.0 -0.1 48.8 50.0 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 16.0 16.0 16.7 0.3 55.6 55.6 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 15.7 15.9 18.3 0.5 60.0 57.8 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 14.7 14.6 14.7 0.2 53.8 54.7 13.9 14.5 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.3 19.0 0.6 61.2 58.7 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.7 17.6 0.5 61.4 59.6 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 13.4 13.5 14.1 0.3 57.8 57.0 12.4 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.2 19.7 0.4 56.3 55.1 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------