***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.0 19.3 0.1 54.1 52.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.0 15.5 18.8 -0.2 42.9 44.3 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.2 17.8 19.2 -0.2 41.7 43.2 17.5 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 13.8 13.7 16.8 0.1 53.2 52.1 13.1 13.6 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.5 14.1 16.8 -0.2 42.1 43.5 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.5 14.8 0.1 56.3 54.7 13.0 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 16.2 16.1 19.1 0.0 51.3 50.7 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.3 9.0 14.6 -0.1 46.3 46.8 8.7 9.1 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 15.8 15.4 16.9 -0.2 43.7 44.5 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.6 15.4 15.3 -0.1 47.4 47.6 15.0 15.5 15.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 14.6 14.8 16.4 -0.3 37.6 40.1 14.7 15.1 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 12.8 13.1 15.5 -0.3 40.0 42.1 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.8 14.2 14.9 -0.2 40.9 42.7 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 16.3 16.0 16.7 -0.1 45.0 46.0 15.7 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 16.9 16.9 18.7 0.2 56.2 54.5 16.2 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.5 15.7 -0.3 38.7 41.2 15.4 15.8 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.5 18.6 -0.1 48.0 48.0 16.1 16.5 17.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.9 14.5 0.1 52.5 51.7 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 15.3 15.5 18.7 -0.4 36.5 39.4 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.0 12.6 0.2 59.3 56.4 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 15.5 15.3 18.3 -0.1 47.3 47.4 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 14.9 15.2 18.5 -0.2 42.1 44.2 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 14.6 14.8 18.5 -0.6 31.5 35.2 14.9 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 16.1 15.8 16.6 -0.1 46.1 46.7 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 15.7 15.6 18.0 0.1 54.7 53.2 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 14.1 14.4 14.5 -0.1 43.7 44.7 14.2 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 15.9 15.9 18.7 0.3 58.5 56.2 15.1 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 14.6 14.4 17.2 0.0 50.4 49.9 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.3 13.3 14.0 0.1 54.1 52.9 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.9 19.1 -0.2 43.7 45.0 15.6 16.1 16.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------