***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 84 16 0 100 26.7 26.6 27.3 -2.4 19.8 21.3 28.0 29.4 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 93 7 0 100 26.2 25.9 27.1 -3.0 15.3 17.0 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Becej 27400G00 98 2 0 100 26.1 25.6 26.6 -3.4 12.8 14.2 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 94 6 0 100 20.1 20.0 23.9 -2.7 16.3 17.7 21.7 23.0 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 100 0 0 100 27.0 26.3 24.6 -3.6 11.6 12.7 28.8 30.3 31.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 98 2 0 100 26.2 25.7 22.4 -3.0 12.1 13.4 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 84 16 0 100 26.3 26.4 27.4 -2.4 20.6 22.0 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 99 1 0 100 15.4 14.5 22.2 -3.8 9.4 10.5 16.9 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 100 0 0 100 26.5 25.9 25.5 -3.4 11.8 13.0 28.3 29.7 31.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 100 0 0 100 26.4 25.6 23.0 -3.7 10.3 11.5 28.1 29.5 30.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 99 1 0 100 26.7 25.5 24.7 -4.1 8.7 9.8 28.5 29.9 31.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 100 0 0 100 25.9 24.6 23.5 -4.1 8.0 9.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 100 0 0 100 27.3 25.7 24.2 -4.3 6.3 7.3 29.0 30.3 31.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 100 0 0 100 25.8 25.2 24.9 -3.4 11.9 13.2 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 28.1 27.9 27.4 -2.8 15.3 16.8 29.5 30.8 31.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 100 0 0 100 27.9 26.5 24.3 -4.1 7.6 8.7 29.6 31.0 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 88 12 0 100 25.8 25.7 27.0 -2.6 18.5 20.3 27.2 28.6 29.9 29 Palic 37000G16 99 1 0 100 25.8 25.2 22.2 -3.5 11.6 12.9 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 96 4 0 100 25.7 25.1 26.8 -3.4 12.7 14.4 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 99 1 0 100 21.6 21.0 20.4 -3.3 11.5 12.9 23.2 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 100 0 0 100 26.6 26.4 26.5 -3.1 14.4 15.7 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 87 13 0 100 26.2 26.0 26.8 -2.7 17.5 19.4 27.6 29.1 30.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 25.9 25.0 26.3 -3.8 10.6 12.0 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 100 0 0 100 25.7 25.0 24.8 -3.5 11.3 12.7 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 26.9 26.9 26.0 -2.7 18.7 20.0 28.4 29.8 31.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 100 0 0 100 27.1 25.6 23.0 -4.3 6.5 7.4 28.7 29.9 31.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 77 23 0 100 26.6 26.6 26.9 -2.2 22.1 23.6 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 96 4 0 100 28.0 27.6 25.2 -3.0 13.3 14.8 29.5 30.7 31.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 99 1 0 100 21.1 20.5 21.5 -3.4 12.0 13.4 22.7 24.0 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 94 6 0 100 26.0 25.7 27.1 -3.0 15.6 17.1 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------