***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 30.2 30.2 31.1 1.3 67.5 64.4 27.7 28.9 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 29.4 29.4 30.5 0.4 55.8 54.6 27.7 29.0 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.4 30.8 0.6 58.7 56.9 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 41 59 100 23.6 23.6 28.4 1.2 67.9 64.2 20.8 22.2 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 29.7 30.0 28.9 0.7 59.8 57.8 27.7 29.2 30.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 28.3 29.4 26.7 1.2 68.3 64.5 26.5 27.9 29.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 29.1 29.8 30.8 1.1 64.5 61.8 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 17.7 18.0 27.0 0.7 60.2 57.3 16.0 17.3 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 29.2 29.4 29.3 0.6 59.1 57.3 27.2 28.7 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 28.9 29.3 27.6 0.7 60.0 57.5 26.9 28.4 29.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.2 29.1 0.5 56.3 54.9 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 28.5 28.6 28.5 0.5 57.2 55.3 26.6 28.0 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 29.5 29.5 28.4 0.4 55.5 54.2 27.6 29.0 30.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 28.9 28.9 28.4 0.4 55.8 54.1 27.1 28.4 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 30.3 31.1 30.9 1.1 66.5 63.1 28.6 29.8 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 30.3 30.4 28.7 0.5 56.9 55.4 28.3 29.8 31.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 85 15 100 28.7 29.2 30.4 0.8 61.0 58.4 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 28.0 28.6 26.8 1.0 63.8 60.1 26.2 27.5 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 28.8 28.5 30.2 0.1 51.3 51.0 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 23.9 25.0 25.0 1.3 68.5 63.5 22.0 23.4 24.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 29.2 29.9 30.5 1.0 64.3 61.3 27.3 28.7 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 29.2 29.3 30.0 0.5 57.1 55.4 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 28.9 28.2 29.9 -0.2 46.9 47.4 27.1 28.4 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 28.6 28.9 28.7 0.7 59.6 57.1 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 44 56 100 30.5 30.6 29.7 1.3 68.2 65.0 27.7 29.1 30.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 29.1 29.1 28.1 0.4 56.0 54.5 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 41 59 100 30.0 30.2 30.4 1.5 70.2 66.8 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 30.2 31.0 29.4 1.1 66.2 62.8 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 23.4 24.2 26.1 1.1 65.6 61.3 21.5 22.9 24.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 29.1 29.3 30.6 0.5 57.5 56.2 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------