***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 28.1 29.4 30.3 -0.3 45.8 46.3 28.5 29.7 30.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 66 34 0 100 27.4 28.3 29.6 -1.0 37.2 39.8 28.0 29.2 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 67 33 0 100 27.4 28.4 30.0 -1.0 37.2 39.9 28.0 29.3 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 21.1 22.4 28.5 -0.1 47.8 48.0 21.4 22.6 23.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 28.0 28.9 28.1 -1.0 35.9 39.6 28.7 29.9 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 27.2 28.4 25.9 -0.3 45.0 46.3 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 27.3 28.6 30.0 -0.4 44.0 44.8 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 16.5 17.1 26.4 -1.0 35.5 38.8 17.0 18.0 19.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 27.7 28.4 27.9 -1.2 33.7 37.8 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 67 33 0 100 27.4 28.1 26.7 -1.1 34.5 38.1 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 27.6 28.1 27.7 -1.3 31.5 36.7 28.2 29.5 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 27.0 27.6 27.9 -1.2 33.0 37.7 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 28.0 28.7 27.0 -1.1 34.1 39.2 28.7 29.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 27.2 27.7 27.0 -1.4 31.2 35.0 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 30.8 30.4 29.9 0.0 50.7 50.3 29.3 30.4 31.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 28.6 29.4 27.5 -1.1 34.0 38.9 29.3 30.5 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 26.8 28.0 29.6 -0.6 42.1 43.5 27.3 28.6 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 26.6 27.4 26.0 -1.0 36.7 39.2 27.1 28.2 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 26.9 27.5 29.5 -1.4 32.6 36.4 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 22.7 23.8 24.1 -0.4 43.7 43.9 23.1 24.3 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 27.8 28.8 29.2 -0.8 39.3 41.6 28.3 29.5 30.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 27.2 28.0 29.3 -1.0 36.6 39.7 27.7 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 27.2 27.5 29.1 -1.7 28.7 33.2 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 27.0 27.7 27.4 -1.2 33.9 37.3 27.6 28.8 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 28.3 29.7 28.7 -0.1 48.7 48.4 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 27.9 28.6 27.9 -1.0 35.6 40.2 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 27.8 29.2 29.5 -0.1 49.3 48.8 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 29.0 30.0 28.8 -0.2 46.4 47.3 29.2 30.3 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 22.1 22.9 25.0 -0.9 38.1 40.1 22.6 23.7 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 27.3 28.3 29.8 -0.9 38.2 40.7 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------