***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 29.9 29.9 31.0 0.6 57.5 54.5 28.2 29.4 30.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 29.6 29.3 30.5 0.1 50.9 48.9 28.1 29.2 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 29.7 29.3 30.7 0.0 50.4 49.0 28.2 29.2 30.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 20.9 23.1 29.2 0.8 60.5 57.3 21.1 22.3 23.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 30.6 30.0 28.8 -0.1 49.4 48.7 28.8 30.0 31.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 29.0 29.1 26.6 0.5 57.8 56.2 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 29.2 29.3 30.8 0.6 57.4 53.9 27.9 28.9 29.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 16.4 17.5 27.0 -0.2 47.0 47.3 16.6 17.7 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.1 28.6 -0.2 46.9 46.8 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 29.6 28.9 27.3 -0.2 46.9 47.0 28.0 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 28.2 29.2 28.4 -0.4 45.1 45.8 28.4 29.5 30.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 27.5 28.5 28.5 -0.3 45.5 46.4 27.7 28.8 29.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 28.5 29.7 27.7 -0.2 47.1 48.1 28.7 29.9 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 29.4 28.6 27.8 -0.4 44.6 45.0 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 31.4 31.0 30.6 1.0 63.0 60.1 29.0 30.1 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 29.1 30.4 28.3 -0.1 48.2 48.6 29.3 30.6 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 28.8 28.8 30.5 0.5 56.2 52.7 27.3 28.4 29.4 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 26.9 28.0 26.6 -0.1 48.9 48.6 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 29.3 28.6 30.3 -0.3 46.5 45.6 27.7 28.8 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 22.8 24.3 24.5 0.2 52.9 51.8 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 29.8 29.5 29.9 0.2 52.3 50.6 28.2 29.3 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 29.5 29.1 30.1 0.1 50.8 48.7 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 27.7 28.5 30.0 -0.6 42.5 42.8 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 29.1 28.5 28.1 -0.2 47.3 47.0 27.6 28.7 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 30.1 30.2 29.4 0.8 59.8 56.6 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 28.2 29.4 28.4 -0.2 47.0 47.9 28.5 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 29.5 29.8 30.2 0.8 60.4 56.8 28.1 29.2 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 30.5 30.7 29.6 0.8 60.3 57.6 28.9 30.0 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 24.0 23.5 25.6 0.0 50.0 49.6 22.4 23.5 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 29.5 29.2 30.6 0.1 51.4 49.5 28.1 29.1 30.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------