***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-25.07.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 17.0 19.2 15.7 137.2 74.9 68.6 2.9 6.8 13.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 31 69 100 10.4 12.8 13.9 153.8 78.1 68.9 2.5 5.0 8.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 15.2 22.1 19.7 186.3 83.0 76.2 3.2 6.8 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 16.3 20.5 17.2 155.0 78.2 71.2 4.1 8.0 13.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 16.7 22.6 19.0 185.4 82.8 78.2 2.7 6.2 11.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 30 70 100 14.3 19.5 19.1 166.7 80.4 73.5 2.9 6.3 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 13.1 14.4 12.0 129.7 73.3 63.8 2.8 6.0 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 19 81 100 18.9 25.5 23.0 179.4 82.6 78.4 3.9 8.0 14.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 17 83 100 14.2 16.8 18.2 160.7 79.2 76.3 2.3 5.3 10.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 21.4 28.6 24.5 180.3 82.4 78.8 4.0 8.5 15.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 14.0 19.1 18.0 175.9 81.7 75.7 2.9 6.2 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 26 74 100 13.0 17.9 16.5 172.5 81.3 75.4 2.4 5.4 10.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 33 67 100 11.4 14.8 14.4 153.0 78.1 72.8 1.8 4.6 9.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 16 84 100 25.6 40.6 29.8 216.8 86.9 81.1 5.3 10.7 18.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 9.6 12.6 13.3 149.8 77.4 64.3 2.3 4.8 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 10.0 12.8 15.3 155.1 78.4 72.1 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 16.4 18.1 12.1 137.8 74.9 64.3 3.8 7.6 13.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 19 81 100 16.0 21.2 27.8 178.7 82.7 77.7 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 15.2 21.1 17.1 178.9 82.1 73.3 3.4 7.0 12.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 15.4 21.3 28.6 188.9 84.5 81.4 2.7 5.9 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 18 82 100 14.1 17.1 18.0 162.6 79.5 75.7 2.5 5.5 10.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 16.9 19.3 14.3 149.6 76.5 66.8 5.0 8.8 14.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 19 81 100 12.8 20.3 22.3 216.4 86.8 79.2 3.0 5.7 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 20.8 30.4 24.8 194.6 84.4 78.6 3.8 8.4 15.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 16.4 19.6 17.1 140.6 75.7 70.2 3.0 6.8 13.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 27 73 100 12.9 17.8 11.5 172.9 80.7 74.6 2.1 5.0 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 13.9 14.9 15.6 129.9 73.4 67.3 3.4 6.7 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 13.4 18.0 16.4 155.8 78.5 69.0 2.3 5.6 10.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 21.1 28.5 27.7 181.6 83.2 78.3 5.1 9.7 16.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 14.0 17.5 14.6 150.5 77.5 69.8 3.2 6.6 11.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------