***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 26.07.2021.-01.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 10.4 15.8 11.8 110.6 69.3 53.5 3.2 7.2 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 18.4 21.0 12.9 133.1 74.1 60.5 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.5 15.9 12.3 107.1 67.6 51.7 3.0 7.4 14.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.3 15.2 10.8 102.5 66.9 49.6 3.3 7.6 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.4 9.4 9.1 83.5 58.6 41.5 3.2 6.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 3.6 11.4 10.9 90.7 61.9 43.6 3.3 7.3 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 8.6 14.0 11.6 122.7 71.8 56.7 2.7 6.1 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 6.1 17.5 10.4 90.8 61.4 45.4 5.6 11.6 20.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 43 57 100 15.8 20.7 17.2 147.8 76.1 64.8 2.9 6.9 13.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 4.5 15.1 13.1 107.3 66.6 49.4 3.7 8.0 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 3.2 9.1 8.2 81.1 58.3 40.5 3.0 6.6 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.7 10.7 6.8 76.2 56.5 41.2 3.4 8.0 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 3.5 10.0 7.7 84.9 61.3 45.2 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 13.8 24.6 19.6 134.7 74.3 56.8 4.2 9.4 18.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 8.4 10.7 9.5 101.5 66.3 46.7 2.5 5.6 10.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.3 9.6 101.5 65.5 51.5 3.3 6.2 10.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 12.0 23.4 14.3 148.1 77.2 62.0 4.4 9.0 15.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 16.1 27.8 17.1 128.2 72.2 58.7 4.4 10.8 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 13.1 22.7 13.8 134.9 74.4 58.7 4.2 9.2 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 4.1 14.3 13.4 102.5 65.2 48.1 3.8 8.2 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 84 16 100 10.8 20.3 15.1 128.2 72.8 63.2 3.4 8.1 15.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 10.6 20.9 15.0 148.2 77.1 58.0 3.5 7.5 13.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.4 22.4 15.5 136.1 74.6 53.7 3.4 8.2 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 17.7 21.6 18.5 141.5 75.6 62.4 4.1 8.6 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 3.6 10.0 10.0 82.2 60.5 44.6 2.9 6.5 12.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.8 8.6 7.0 77.4 55.8 42.2 3.3 6.9 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.1 13.9 11.4 97.6 65.0 49.2 3.3 7.5 14.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 4.2 12.8 8.9 91.7 63.4 45.5 3.3 7.6 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.6 32.8 17.7 124.2 71.3 57.1 7.6 15.4 27.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.9 16.8 12.0 118.7 70.8 54.0 3.1 7.2 13.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------