***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.08.2021.-08.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 71 29 0 100 3.1 10.3 6.9 82.8 61.0 37.9 3.8 7.3 12.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.0 9.6 6.0 67.1 55.8 39.2 3.8 7.9 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 3.2 9.1 7.1 76.0 58.5 36.1 3.5 6.8 11.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 4.2 19.8 10.0 124.8 72.4 41.2 4.7 9.3 16.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 3.0 12.1 8.6 116.4 70.6 38.7 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 2.8 14.8 10.5 121.0 71.2 44.2 2.5 6.1 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.9 5.7 67.7 55.8 37.3 3.6 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 65 35 0 100 5.0 22.4 10.0 110.1 68.8 42.4 5.3 11.4 20.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 3.0 13.3 9.8 119.0 71.2 45.4 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 4.9 19.9 10.9 111.7 69.2 43.9 4.8 10.1 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 3.2 17.7 7.8 122.8 71.8 38.9 3.6 7.8 14.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 70 30 0 100 3.2 14.6 7.2 111.0 69.0 37.4 3.8 7.6 13.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 2.2 12.0 8.2 119.4 71.1 41.0 2.1 5.0 9.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 3.6 10.6 9.9 75.7 58.3 41.5 3.1 7.3 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 2.8 13.7 7.2 117.4 70.8 40.2 2.7 6.1 11.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 2.8 14.8 8.9 136.1 74.7 41.5 2.8 5.9 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.9 9.7 5.6 64.4 54.8 37.6 3.8 8.1 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 5.7 15.1 13.1 107.1 67.8 47.2 5.5 9.3 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 3.6 9.5 6.4 66.9 55.8 39.2 3.2 7.4 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.8 15.1 13.1 108.5 67.9 47.8 5.0 8.9 14.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.3 13.9 9.4 113.6 70.0 43.7 3.4 7.0 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.6 7.7 6.1 59.1 52.8 37.5 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 3.6 8.4 6.9 66.9 55.7 38.3 3.3 6.9 12.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.1 17.2 11.4 98.7 65.6 46.1 6.0 10.8 17.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 3.1 15.3 9.0 109.1 68.8 39.6 3.5 7.7 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 2.4 11.4 6.1 101.7 66.3 38.6 2.4 5.7 11.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 3.0 12.4 7.7 89.2 62.8 38.6 3.4 7.5 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 2.6 12.1 9.2 127.0 73.0 40.6 2.8 5.5 9.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.1 20.0 13.4 103.6 66.6 47.5 6.7 12.2 19.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.6 6.2 67.7 55.7 37.1 2.8 5.5 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------