***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.08.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 2.6 14.0 9.2 137.6 75.0 48.7 2.8 5.8 10.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.2 16.0 9.3 134.0 74.1 49.9 3.1 6.7 12.0 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 2.9 15.0 9.1 121.2 71.2 46.7 2.8 6.5 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 3.6 16.0 8.6 113.7 69.7 44.9 3.5 7.7 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.5 9.2 8.0 105.1 67.4 42.6 2.4 4.9 8.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.6 13.1 7.9 88.5 62.5 42.1 4.6 8.7 14.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.5 10.6 8.4 121.1 71.1 46.3 2.4 5.0 8.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 4.8 13.7 9.2 98.9 65.3 45.8 4.7 8.6 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.9 14.6 9.5 115.7 70.3 48.1 3.4 7.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 5.2 15.7 10.7 109.2 68.4 47.7 4.7 8.9 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 3.3 9.2 6.0 86.4 61.3 38.8 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.4 9.4 6.1 92.5 63.3 40.4 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.5 12.3 8.0 112.6 69.3 44.5 3.5 6.6 11.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.3 16.7 12.3 115.8 70.0 49.6 5.1 9.3 14.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 2.7 12.7 6.2 106.8 67.9 41.1 2.8 6.3 11.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.2 10.4 7.3 104.8 67.1 43.7 3.0 5.9 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 3.2 12.1 9.4 124.3 72.1 48.4 3.3 6.2 10.1 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 4.9 14.7 13.9 121.3 71.1 51.2 5.0 8.4 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.4 15.2 9.3 128.5 73.0 49.8 3.4 6.8 12.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 4.2 13.2 13.0 105.9 66.9 49.8 3.9 7.6 12.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 3.6 15.6 9.2 124.3 72.2 47.0 3.5 7.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 2.9 13.6 10.9 131.0 73.8 50.3 3.0 6.0 10.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 2.6 9.9 8.5 109.5 68.5 47.2 2.3 5.1 9.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 5.3 20.0 12.3 121.9 71.5 50.9 4.9 9.7 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 3.2 14.3 9.1 125.7 72.6 45.5 3.3 6.5 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 3.3 11.6 6.5 112.2 68.9 42.1 3.4 6.4 10.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.8 13.0 9.1 128.6 73.1 47.6 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 3.4 13.9 7.2 101.7 66.5 42.1 3.3 7.4 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 5.6 17.3 14.3 116.1 69.7 51.9 5.1 9.4 15.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.7 13.6 9.1 129.5 73.1 48.0 2.5 5.5 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------