***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 15.07.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.07.2021.-15.08.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 83 17 100 42.4 58.9 43.7 117.5 68.7 62.1 20.3 35.3 54.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 42 58 100 58.3 59.9 42.1 121.7 69.9 62.8 21.7 35.9 54.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 48.7 64.3 48.3 123.7 70.5 63.7 30.0 43.2 58.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 50.9 74.2 46.6 125.2 71.4 63.7 27.8 44.4 65.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 36.8 53.6 44.6 124.0 71.0 63.7 19.3 31.5 47.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 47.6 61.6 48.3 117.9 68.5 60.6 27.1 41.3 58.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 38.0 48.7 37.9 110.7 66.1 58.3 19.7 32.2 48.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 59.8 84.5 52.6 123.4 70.5 65.0 32.3 51.7 75.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 41 59 100 58.5 67.4 54.6 138.8 75.0 68.6 25.8 38.9 55.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 43 57 100 73.6 82.5 59.2 130.8 72.9 66.4 27.9 46.2 69.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 40.2 56.4 40.0 118.3 68.9 62.1 20.1 34.0 52.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 85 15 100 42.5 57.1 36.7 114.9 67.8 61.6 23.0 37.0 54.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 89 11 100 35.6 51.1 38.3 118.0 69.1 61.9 20.0 32.0 47.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 83.7 93.5 71.6 138.1 75.5 69.6 32.4 51.2 74.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 37.3 53.8 36.1 120.9 70.5 61.3 18.8 31.8 47.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 86 14 100 34.0 49.0 41.1 125.1 71.1 64.0 19.3 30.1 43.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 48.9 61.0 41.4 119.2 69.1 61.1 31.2 43.4 57.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 74.0 81.9 71.9 136.9 75.1 68.4 33.4 49.0 67.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 66.7 70.5 46.6 127.2 71.7 64.7 22.2 38.6 60.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 42 58 100 60.9 67.0 68.2 129.1 73.0 66.9 28.2 41.7 57.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 46 54 100 59.9 68.2 51.6 134.1 73.8 67.1 29.5 42.7 58.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 58.7 59.9 46.4 121.3 69.7 62.2 30.2 42.2 56.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 57.5 64.2 53.2 133.6 73.9 66.2 19.5 33.4 51.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 33 67 100 79.1 89.8 67.1 141.2 76.2 69.8 32.4 49.6 71.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 83 17 100 48.6 61.0 45.3 113.8 67.6 59.7 29.7 43.0 59.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 38.3 50.7 31.0 111.8 67.0 60.9 20.4 33.1 49.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 46.3 57.7 43.8 111.1 66.3 59.0 26.5 40.3 57.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 85 15 100 42.3 60.8 41.7 120.9 70.3 62.2 22.3 36.6 54.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 93.4 100.7 73.2 133.7 74.4 68.4 46.0 64.7 86.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 40.5 53.8 41.9 116.5 68.1 61.3 20.9 34.2 50.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------