***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 16 84 100 16.8 17.3 21.3 2.0 81.7 76.0 14.8 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 16.7 16.9 21.0 1.4 73.5 68.1 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 18.9 19.1 20.9 1.5 75.4 70.7 17.0 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 14.7 14.9 18.6 1.2 73.8 68.7 12.5 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 15.1 15.3 18.2 1.3 73.7 69.2 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 29 71 100 14.4 14.6 16.4 1.3 75.5 70.5 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 17.1 17.4 21.2 1.6 76.9 70.8 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 9.9 10.4 16.7 1.7 81.7 75.8 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 16.5 16.8 18.8 1.6 78.9 73.8 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 26 74 100 16.3 16.7 17.2 1.5 78.9 73.7 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 28 72 100 16.1 16.3 17.8 1.4 75.9 70.7 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 14.4 14.9 17.7 1.7 81.8 75.7 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 15.4 15.7 16.7 1.2 75.3 70.6 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 31 69 100 17.0 17.1 18.6 1.3 73.0 68.4 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 18.1 18.6 20.0 1.8 82.2 75.4 16.3 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 16.7 16.8 17.3 1.1 73.2 68.4 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 17.4 17.3 20.1 1.0 67.4 62.6 15.9 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 28 72 100 14.9 15.2 16.4 1.4 77.5 72.2 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 16.6 16.8 20.9 1.4 73.4 68.4 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 10.9 11.1 14.4 1.3 74.9 69.8 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 16.4 16.7 20.2 1.7 79.1 74.0 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 15.7 16.0 19.9 0.8 64.0 60.3 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 16.2 16.4 20.6 1.5 76.0 70.8 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 16.8 17.1 18.5 1.4 76.1 71.1 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 20 80 100 16.5 17.0 19.7 1.9 82.4 76.2 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 21 79 100 15.6 15.8 17.0 1.4 78.5 74.0 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 16.8 17.6 20.6 2.1 84.2 77.9 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 15.5 15.7 19.1 1.3 75.0 69.5 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 14.0 14.4 15.7 1.3 76.0 70.7 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 16.9 17.2 21.3 1.6 75.9 70.6 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------