***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 17.1 17.7 21.4 1.8 82.1 72.5 15.5 16.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 17.1 17.7 21.3 1.5 78.5 69.5 15.0 16.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 31 69 100 19.3 19.8 21.0 1.4 77.1 68.3 17.3 18.2 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 38 62 100 14.6 15.1 18.8 1.2 76.7 68.5 12.7 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 15.7 16.1 18.3 1.2 75.5 67.5 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 14.4 14.9 16.5 1.2 79.8 69.8 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 27 73 100 17.3 17.9 21.4 1.7 80.8 71.5 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 10.3 11.1 16.7 1.5 83.3 73.1 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 16.8 17.3 18.8 1.4 80.2 70.5 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 16.7 17.3 17.2 1.4 80.9 71.1 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.8 17.8 1.2 76.8 69.0 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 14.5 15.1 17.7 1.4 82.2 72.9 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 15.5 15.9 16.6 1.1 76.9 68.3 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 17.4 17.6 18.7 1.2 75.9 67.7 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 17.9 18.9 19.9 1.7 85.6 75.8 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 17.2 17.5 17.3 1.0 73.6 66.2 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 32 68 100 17.6 17.8 20.4 1.2 74.3 66.0 15.7 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 29 71 100 15.2 15.7 16.5 1.3 79.8 69.9 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 33 67 100 17.0 17.4 21.2 1.5 78.0 69.0 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 11.2 11.5 14.4 1.0 75.4 66.9 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 16.6 17.1 20.2 1.5 79.3 69.8 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 33 67 100 16.4 16.5 20.3 1.0 71.1 63.6 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 16.5 16.9 20.8 1.5 79.1 70.1 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 28 72 100 17.1 17.5 18.6 1.3 78.2 69.0 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 17.0 17.8 19.7 1.7 83.6 73.8 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 15.6 16.0 16.9 1.1 77.1 69.6 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 17.5 18.6 20.5 1.9 85.1 75.1 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 38 62 100 15.6 16.1 19.1 1.2 77.4 68.9 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 14.3 14.8 15.8 1.2 78.8 69.4 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 17.4 18.0 21.5 1.6 79.5 70.4 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------