***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 26 74 100 16.7 16.8 20.5 1.3 74.4 66.5 15.0 15.7 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 16.2 16.2 20.4 1.0 69.1 63.1 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 18.8 18.8 20.1 0.9 68.1 62.1 17.3 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 40 60 100 14.8 14.7 17.9 0.7 66.6 61.8 12.9 13.8 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.6 15.0 17.4 0.7 66.0 61.2 13.6 14.3 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 14.0 14.0 15.7 0.8 69.8 63.8 12.7 13.3 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 16.6 16.6 20.5 1.2 71.7 64.9 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 10.1 10.3 15.8 1.0 74.4 66.2 8.5 9.2 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 16.3 16.3 17.8 0.9 70.4 63.7 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 16.1 16.3 16.3 0.9 72.3 64.5 14.8 15.4 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 15.6 15.7 17.0 0.8 69.0 63.5 14.3 15.0 15.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 13.8 14.0 16.8 1.0 73.5 66.5 12.6 13.1 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 15.1 15.0 15.8 0.7 67.4 62.5 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 16.2 16.4 17.7 0.7 64.2 60.6 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 35 65 100 17.2 17.4 19.0 1.1 74.0 67.3 15.8 16.5 17.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 16.1 16.4 16.6 0.6 64.7 61.1 15.3 15.9 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.7 19.5 0.8 64.1 59.6 15.6 16.2 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 14.4 14.5 15.6 0.8 70.1 63.4 12.8 13.6 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 16.4 16.3 20.3 0.9 68.0 62.6 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 9.8 10.1 13.6 0.6 64.3 59.6 8.9 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 16.0 16.0 19.3 1.0 70.3 63.6 14.6 15.2 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 15.4 15.5 19.4 0.6 61.1 58.1 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 15.8 15.7 19.8 0.9 68.0 63.1 14.5 15.1 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 16.5 16.5 17.7 0.8 68.2 62.4 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 16.3 16.6 18.8 1.3 75.4 67.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.2 16.2 0.8 68.7 63.8 14.0 14.6 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 16.7 17.1 19.7 1.4 77.2 68.6 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 39 61 100 15.0 14.9 18.3 0.8 67.2 62.4 13.5 14.2 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.5 14.0 14.9 0.8 68.7 62.8 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 16.6 16.7 20.6 1.1 70.6 64.1 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------