***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-26.07.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 31.8 34.5 35.2 5.6 95.1 94.1 28.0 29.4 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 31.6 34.0 35.9 5.7 93.8 92.7 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 31.7 34.0 35.2 5.4 93.4 92.2 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 1 99 100 25.4 27.3 31.8 4.3 91.5 89.9 21.6 23.0 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 32.8 35.0 32.9 4.8 92.5 91.3 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 2 98 100 30.9 32.3 29.0 3.6 89.5 88.2 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 31.3 33.9 35.9 5.9 94.6 93.5 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 20.3 22.5 31.1 5.2 94.5 93.5 17.0 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 32.1 34.7 34.2 5.4 94.6 93.6 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 31.8 34.4 32.3 5.3 94.3 93.3 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 32.2 34.4 32.5 4.8 92.9 91.8 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 31.4 34.2 32.1 5.1 94.9 93.8 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 32.5 34.8 31.9 4.7 94.0 93.1 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 31.4 33.7 33.5 5.4 93.2 92.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 32.8 35.3 34.3 4.7 95.2 93.6 29.4 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 33.3 35.4 32.0 4.4 92.5 91.3 29.5 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 30.8 32.8 34.9 5.3 92.5 91.2 27.1 28.5 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 30.7 32.9 31.4 5.4 93.9 92.8 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 31.1 33.6 35.9 5.8 94.2 93.1 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 26.6 28.6 28.8 4.8 93.0 91.9 23.2 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 32.0 34.2 35.0 5.4 93.6 92.4 28.3 29.6 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 31.3 33.5 34.8 5.3 92.9 91.7 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 31.3 34.1 35.7 6.2 95.5 94.5 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 31.2 33.5 33.4 5.5 93.7 92.6 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 32.2 34.9 33.7 5.3 94.3 93.1 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 32.0 34.4 31.4 4.6 94.1 93.2 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 31.4 34.1 34.5 5.6 95.2 94.2 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 2 98 100 32.8 34.5 32.6 4.1 91.5 89.7 29.4 30.6 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 26.2 28.4 30.5 5.4 94.0 92.8 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 31.3 33.9 35.9 5.8 94.3 93.3 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------