***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 31.1 32.1 33.1 2.5 82.8 74.6 28.4 29.6 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 30.7 31.5 33.1 2.2 78.9 71.2 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 30.7 31.3 32.7 2.1 77.5 70.5 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 24.0 24.7 31.0 2.0 78.8 71.2 21.3 22.5 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 31.4 32.0 30.7 1.9 76.8 69.3 28.6 29.9 31.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 30.1 30.9 28.2 1.9 79.5 70.6 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 22 78 100 30.7 31.5 33.1 2.4 81.2 72.8 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 19.2 19.9 29.1 2.1 79.8 70.4 16.8 17.9 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 30.8 31.5 31.1 2.1 78.6 70.4 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 30.4 31.1 29.6 2.0 78.3 69.6 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 30.8 31.5 30.2 2.0 78.0 69.7 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 30.1 31.0 30.3 2.2 80.9 71.5 27.5 28.6 29.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 31 69 100 31.3 32.2 29.7 2.0 79.6 70.8 28.6 29.8 31.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 28 72 100 30.4 30.6 30.3 1.7 73.1 66.6 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 21 79 100 31.8 32.9 31.9 2.5 85.8 76.4 29.2 30.3 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 32.0 32.6 30.0 1.8 76.6 68.9 29.2 30.5 31.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 30.2 30.6 32.4 1.9 75.0 68.2 27.1 28.5 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 29.3 29.8 28.7 1.9 76.0 67.8 27.0 28.1 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 30.4 31.0 33.1 2.2 78.1 70.6 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 30 70 100 25.5 25.9 26.6 1.7 74.9 66.6 23.0 24.1 25.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 30.8 31.5 32.1 2.1 78.6 71.0 28.3 29.4 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 30.7 30.8 32.1 1.6 72.0 66.3 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 30.5 31.0 32.6 2.1 77.7 70.3 27.7 28.9 30.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 30.0 30.4 30.4 1.9 75.6 68.2 27.5 28.6 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 24 76 100 31.2 32.3 31.4 2.6 83.8 75.1 28.5 29.6 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 31.1 31.9 30.0 2.1 80.5 71.7 28.3 29.6 30.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 30.7 31.9 32.3 2.7 85.2 76.2 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 31.5 32.2 31.2 2.0 79.0 71.1 29.1 30.2 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 30 70 100 25.0 25.3 27.7 1.8 75.1 66.8 22.4 23.6 24.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 26 74 100 30.7 31.4 33.3 2.3 80.0 72.2 27.8 29.0 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------