***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 30.9 31.1 32.2 1.7 72.0 67.3 28.2 29.4 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 38 62 100 30.5 30.5 32.3 1.5 68.8 64.6 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 30.6 30.5 32.0 1.4 67.9 64.5 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 23.9 23.6 30.1 1.2 66.5 63.4 21.1 22.4 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 31.5 31.3 30.0 1.2 66.3 63.4 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 29.8 29.8 27.6 1.2 67.0 62.9 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 30.2 30.3 32.2 1.7 70.6 65.8 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 18.9 19.0 28.5 1.5 69.5 65.5 16.6 17.7 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 30.7 30.6 30.5 1.5 68.8 65.4 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 30.4 30.4 29.1 1.5 68.7 65.1 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 31.0 30.9 29.7 1.3 67.9 64.5 28.3 29.6 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 30.2 30.4 29.7 1.6 70.5 66.3 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 31.3 31.3 29.1 1.4 68.4 64.4 28.6 29.9 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 29.5 30.1 29.7 1.2 64.6 62.2 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 31.5 31.7 30.9 1.6 72.4 67.6 29.0 30.2 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 39 61 100 32.0 31.8 29.4 1.1 65.5 62.5 29.3 30.6 31.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 28.9 29.6 31.7 1.3 65.5 61.9 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 41 59 100 29.3 29.2 28.2 1.3 66.3 63.2 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 40 60 100 30.2 30.2 32.3 1.5 68.2 64.4 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 24.6 25.2 26.0 1.0 63.8 61.0 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 30.7 30.7 31.3 1.5 68.6 65.3 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 29.5 30.1 31.4 1.1 63.6 60.7 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 30.2 30.3 31.9 1.5 68.2 64.6 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 30.0 29.9 29.9 1.3 66.5 63.6 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 31 69 100 31.0 31.2 30.5 1.7 71.8 67.2 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 31.0 31.1 29.4 1.4 70.2 65.5 28.4 29.6 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 31 69 100 30.6 30.9 31.3 1.8 73.6 68.2 28.1 29.2 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 31.4 31.2 30.4 1.2 66.5 63.3 28.9 30.0 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 23.9 24.5 27.1 1.1 64.2 61.4 22.3 23.5 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 30.5 30.5 32.4 1.6 69.8 65.4 28.1 29.2 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------