***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 30.6 31.8 33.2 3.1 92.5 86.8 28.6 29.4 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 30.3 31.3 33.5 2.9 89.4 83.5 28.5 29.2 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 14 86 100 30.3 31.3 33.0 2.7 89.1 83.6 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 23.7 24.8 30.8 2.4 88.7 82.6 21.7 22.5 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 16 84 100 31.2 32.4 31.0 2.5 89.2 83.1 29.0 29.9 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 18 82 100 29.7 30.8 28.2 2.1 89.7 83.0 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 11 89 100 30.0 31.1 33.4 3.0 91.3 85.4 28.2 28.9 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 18.9 20.2 29.4 2.7 93.6 87.2 17.1 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 30.5 31.7 31.6 2.8 91.5 85.5 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 14 86 100 30.4 31.8 30.1 2.7 92.1 85.8 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 30.8 32.1 30.6 2.5 90.8 84.6 28.5 29.4 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 30.0 31.6 30.6 2.8 94.1 88.0 27.8 28.7 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 9 91 100 31.1 32.6 30.0 2.6 92.8 86.6 28.9 29.8 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 20 80 100 30.0 30.9 30.9 2.5 86.6 81.2 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 10 90 100 31.4 32.8 32.2 2.8 93.8 88.1 29.5 30.3 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 31.8 33.0 30.3 2.3 89.4 83.2 29.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 17 83 100 29.7 30.5 32.7 2.5 86.0 80.4 27.8 28.6 29.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 18 82 100 29.1 30.3 29.2 2.6 90.7 84.1 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 29.9 30.9 33.4 2.9 89.2 83.5 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 17 83 100 25.2 26.5 26.9 2.3 90.8 83.5 23.3 24.1 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 10 90 100 30.6 31.7 32.5 2.8 90.5 84.8 28.5 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 21 79 100 30.1 30.8 32.4 2.3 84.3 79.0 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 12 88 100 30.0 31.0 33.1 3.0 90.0 84.7 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 18 82 100 29.7 30.7 31.0 2.6 89.1 83.3 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 9 91 100 30.8 32.2 31.6 3.0 92.8 86.9 28.8 29.6 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 30.8 32.4 30.1 2.6 94.2 88.1 28.6 29.5 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 8 92 100 30.2 31.6 32.5 3.2 93.8 88.0 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 31.2 32.2 31.3 2.3 88.8 82.6 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 19 81 100 24.6 25.8 28.2 2.5 90.6 83.5 22.8 23.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 10 90 100 30.2 31.2 33.6 3.0 90.5 84.7 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------