***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2015.-02.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 3.0 10.6 6.9 78.7 59.8 33.0 3.4 7.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 70 30 0 100 2.9 13.0 8.2 95.9 65.0 35.5 3.5 7.3 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 2.3 10.5 6.9 81.9 60.5 34.1 2.8 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 3.0 8.7 7.0 69.3 57.4 36.1 2.8 6.4 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 3.0 10.2 7.8 88.2 63.2 39.2 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 62 38 0 100 2.9 10.5 10.6 92.2 63.3 41.6 2.9 6.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 70 30 0 100 2.0 8.3 7.5 89.2 62.8 35.7 2.3 5.1 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.3 20.0 9.5 105.5 66.8 43.8 4.8 10.5 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.7 12.3 8.0 95.6 65.3 37.4 2.9 6.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.3 12.8 9.2 96.0 64.6 41.6 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 3.2 12.7 6.4 99.4 65.1 40.6 3.2 7.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 3.0 12.8 6.8 103.5 66.0 39.2 2.7 6.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 2.8 10.7 7.6 94.9 63.7 41.0 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 2.9 14.4 10.5 96.0 64.5 40.9 3.2 7.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 66 34 0 100 2.2 5.6 5.3 55.7 51.5 32.1 2.2 5.3 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.0 10.5 6.7 92.3 63.1 39.9 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.8 11.7 7.8 94.8 64.5 36.6 2.8 6.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 4.1 15.5 10.9 88.4 61.9 43.1 3.9 9.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 2.6 12.0 7.9 96.7 65.1 35.8 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.8 16.2 13.5 114.2 68.9 50.8 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 72 28 0 100 2.8 12.7 7.1 90.4 63.6 33.5 3.4 7.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 2.6 11.0 7.4 96.3 64.9 38.9 2.9 6.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 2.3 11.7 7.6 93.3 63.9 35.5 2.6 6.4 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 3.5 12.1 9.0 84.1 60.9 40.1 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 2.4 7.6 7.2 64.1 55.5 34.5 2.4 6.0 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.3 10.3 6.0 98.1 64.4 45.0 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 2.5 8.6 7.2 69.7 56.7 34.6 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 3.0 8.9 6.6 71.3 57.5 35.6 3.2 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.0 23.7 12.1 100.8 65.4 46.6 6.9 13.9 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 71 29 0 100 2.3 10.1 7.8 90.0 63.3 34.8 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------