***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2015.-09.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 74 26 0 100 3.3 9.8 4.5 59.3 55.0 31.9 4.3 8.3 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.3 13.1 6.7 76.7 60.4 39.1 4.4 9.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 71 29 0 100 2.8 8.8 5.0 68.2 57.3 35.2 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 64 36 0 100 5.7 15.4 5.6 69.1 57.9 32.2 6.1 11.8 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 70 30 0 100 3.0 8.3 5.8 69.9 58.5 32.3 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.2 10.5 8.4 74.0 58.8 32.8 3.1 7.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.4 10.1 6.5 73.5 59.7 40.0 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 6.5 18.2 8.3 83.9 61.4 38.5 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 73 27 0 100 3.3 10.1 5.9 68.2 58.3 32.4 4.2 7.8 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 5.1 15.5 8.2 80.5 61.3 37.0 5.8 10.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 3.9 12.6 5.5 80.1 60.6 33.0 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 4.1 12.7 5.7 83.9 61.3 35.1 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 2.7 11.0 6.7 87.8 63.1 35.6 3.1 6.7 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 3.8 12.6 7.9 79.4 60.0 39.9 3.7 8.4 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 3.3 11.2 4.5 71.7 57.4 30.3 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 72 28 0 100 2.7 9.4 5.6 81.9 60.9 33.3 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 4.1 13.1 6.6 74.3 59.8 38.5 4.2 9.0 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 5.3 14.8 10.2 87.8 63.3 41.5 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 3.7 14.1 6.3 80.5 61.4 38.3 3.8 8.9 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 4.7 14.5 12.1 99.3 65.4 45.3 4.3 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 74 26 0 100 2.7 8.6 4.5 60.8 54.9 30.5 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 68 32 0 100 3.4 12.0 6.6 87.3 63.5 39.0 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 3.3 10.2 5.9 80.9 61.3 38.0 3.6 7.1 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 5.6 16.9 7.8 81.9 61.3 39.9 6.1 11.7 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 71 29 0 100 3.5 10.2 5.4 59.6 55.1 32.2 4.1 8.5 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 67 33 0 100 2.9 11.4 5.3 95.1 64.0 35.3 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 3.4 10.6 5.5 62.1 56.0 33.8 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 3.5 11.2 5.3 75.0 59.6 31.9 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 6.9 19.2 11.0 92.5 64.3 42.9 7.0 12.6 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.5 7.9 6.1 73.0 59.5 38.2 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------