***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 2.0 9.6 3.7 100.0 65.0 33.5 2.6 5.5 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 2.0 7.9 4.1 89.0 62.9 38.1 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 2.4 9.8 3.4 84.2 60.9 35.8 2.7 6.4 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 2.0 6.3 3.1 65.6 54.8 31.0 2.5 5.3 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 72 28 0 100 1.7 5.1 3.1 63.6 54.6 29.9 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.4 11.9 6.1 82.7 62.9 35.1 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 2.2 8.2 4.3 93.2 63.7 37.6 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.4 11.8 5.3 79.9 61.4 38.7 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 76 24 0 100 1.9 6.7 3.1 66.3 55.2 29.9 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.4 8.9 4.2 64.7 56.5 35.6 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 68 32 0 100 2.4 5.8 2.9 63.2 54.1 30.4 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 2.1 6.0 3.8 75.4 58.7 33.3 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 67 33 0 100 2.1 6.1 3.8 72.1 57.3 31.3 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.3 12.8 5.3 82.5 61.5 41.2 4.8 8.9 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 1.9 5.8 2.4 68.7 54.9 30.2 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 1.5 5.3 3.2 71.8 57.2 31.1 1.8 4.0 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 66 34 0 100 2.1 6.4 4.2 83.5 62.2 37.8 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 3.7 7.9 5.0 70.8 58.6 40.3 3.7 6.3 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 68 32 0 100 2.6 9.0 3.9 86.8 62.2 37.6 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.8 12.5 7.8 99.9 66.6 47.4 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 73 27 0 100 2.7 8.6 2.7 71.7 56.4 29.5 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 71 29 0 100 2.2 10.0 5.4 102.3 67.5 38.2 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 66 34 0 100 2.5 8.1 3.9 78.5 60.1 38.0 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 3.9 10.3 4.2 75.3 59.0 38.5 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 68 32 0 100 2.8 8.9 4.2 81.8 60.2 32.3 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 2.8 7.8 2.8 81.8 58.3 33.8 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 71 29 0 100 2.5 11.4 4.8 98.2 65.1 34.4 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 72 28 0 100 2.0 6.1 2.9 69.7 55.9 30.9 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.9 12.6 5.9 84.5 62.5 42.8 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 68 32 0 100 2.1 9.0 4.0 91.9 63.2 37.8 2.2 5.3 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------