***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2015.-16.08.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 19.8 31.5 17.1 54.9 44.5 35.2 21.2 37.2 58.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 22.2 35.3 21.8 68.2 49.5 40.1 21.6 35.9 54.0 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 29.5 38.7 17.6 57.6 43.8 36.4 30.5 43.8 59.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 25.7 35.7 17.6 50.3 41.7 33.4 27.8 44.4 64.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 17.2 25.8 19.0 56.0 44.2 34.9 18.2 30.2 45.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 28.0 40.6 27.3 66.8 47.8 39.9 28.4 42.4 59.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 40.9 30.8 21.5 66.4 47.8 39.2 19.7 32.5 49.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 65.7 57.3 28.0 79.1 53.3 44.7 33.5 53.0 77.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 23.3 35.1 19.7 59.5 46.4 36.7 25.3 38.2 53.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 28.4 43.6 25.8 68.0 48.5 40.2 27.6 45.5 68.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 21.2 32.1 17.1 62.6 48.3 39.1 20.1 33.7 51.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 23.7 39.7 19.8 73.9 52.9 43.7 23.0 37.0 54.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 19.0 29.4 20.3 66.5 46.6 38.8 19.9 32.3 48.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 31.8 48.6 27.4 70.5 48.3 41.9 32.0 50.6 73.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 70 30 0 100 16.4 21.2 13.8 44.0 34.8 28.9 19.9 32.0 47.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 17.3 25.8 17.3 61.1 45.4 37.1 18.1 29.0 43.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 50.2 43.2 22.0 69.6 49.5 39.9 31.9 43.7 57.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 59.2 49.7 31.6 73.6 49.6 42.3 34.8 50.0 67.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 25.9 41.8 20.7 68.1 49.9 40.5 25.7 42.1 62.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 50.8 51.0 41.0 95.1 57.9 48.5 32.2 44.3 58.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 27.4 38.2 16.2 53.5 44.6 34.7 29.2 42.7 58.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 30.1 44.2 22.1 74.6 52.4 41.9 30.9 42.2 55.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 45.5 35.2 19.7 65.6 48.4 40.3 22.8 36.4 53.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 35.7 48.6 24.9 66.3 46.9 40.5 36.1 52.0 70.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 73 27 0 100 24.3 32.7 18.5 47.4 37.1 29.9 29.8 43.1 59.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 21.4 34.2 17.7 74.6 50.9 43.1 20.6 33.3 49.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 23.2 33.6 19.6 53.1 41.0 33.1 26.9 41.6 59.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 19.5 27.9 16.5 50.8 41.0 33.1 21.9 35.6 53.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 75.9 70.2 35.2 83.0 53.6 45.7 47.9 65.8 86.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 21.0 32.4 20.6 64.4 47.5 38.7 20.9 34.5 52.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------