***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 94 6 0 100 14.0 13.7 16.7 -2.5 14.7 16.7 15.0 16.0 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 95 5 0 100 13.6 13.1 16.4 -2.7 12.1 14.2 14.8 15.8 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 95 5 0 100 15.6 15.1 16.9 -2.6 12.1 14.3 16.9 18.0 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 83 17 0 100 11.4 11.4 14.8 -1.7 20.4 22.4 12.5 13.8 15.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 12.0 11.6 15.2 -2.0 15.3 18.3 13.0 14.0 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 11.6 11.5 12.9 -1.3 20.8 24.0 12.2 12.9 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 95 5 0 100 14.1 13.7 16.5 -2.6 12.9 14.8 15.2 16.2 17.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 88 12 0 100 7.0 6.6 12.5 -1.9 14.1 17.3 8.0 9.0 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 86 14 0 100 13.6 13.1 15.3 -2.1 13.2 16.4 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 13.5 13.0 13.4 -2.0 13.5 17.0 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 13.1 12.4 14.8 -2.2 11.8 15.1 13.9 14.8 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 91 9 0 100 11.4 11.0 13.7 -2.1 13.8 16.6 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 85 15 0 100 12.5 11.8 13.9 -1.9 11.2 15.7 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 88 12 0 100 14.1 13.7 15.0 -2.0 14.1 17.4 15.0 15.9 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 85 15 0 100 14.9 14.7 17.1 -1.8 17.5 19.8 15.7 16.5 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 85 15 0 100 13.7 13.0 14.6 -1.9 12.4 16.2 14.6 15.5 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 96 4 0 100 14.8 14.3 16.2 -2.6 12.0 14.1 15.8 16.7 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 11.8 11.3 12.9 -1.8 14.6 18.1 12.6 13.5 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 93 7 0 100 14.0 13.5 16.6 -2.6 12.5 14.6 14.9 15.8 16.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 8.0 7.8 11.2 -1.6 17.0 20.0 8.7 9.5 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 89 11 0 100 13.2 12.7 16.3 -2.3 12.7 15.4 14.2 15.2 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 13.6 13.2 16.7 -2.3 14.4 16.7 14.5 15.4 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 92 8 0 100 13.4 13.0 16.7 -2.4 13.8 15.8 14.3 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 88 12 0 100 13.8 13.3 15.0 -2.1 12.8 16.0 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 89 11 0 100 13.1 12.8 15.9 -2.3 16.3 18.4 14.1 15.2 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 12.8 12.5 12.9 -1.6 16.3 19.7 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 93 7 0 100 12.7 12.5 16.2 -2.5 15.6 17.5 14.1 15.4 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 87 13 0 100 12.3 12.1 15.4 -1.8 16.7 19.3 13.1 14.0 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 11.1 10.7 12.1 -1.8 15.1 18.4 12.1 13.2 14.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 96 4 0 100 14.0 13.6 16.7 -2.7 12.4 14.3 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------