***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 14.5 14.5 18.2 -1.2 25.7 31.2 14.8 15.6 16.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 14.6 14.5 18.0 -1.2 25.2 30.8 14.9 15.7 16.5 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 16.6 16.6 18.4 -1.3 24.1 29.3 17.0 17.8 18.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 12.0 12.3 16.1 -0.9 29.2 34.1 12.5 13.5 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 13.0 13.0 16.2 -1.2 25.0 30.6 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 12.4 12.7 14.2 -0.7 32.6 36.8 12.8 13.5 14.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 15.1 15.2 18.3 -1.1 28.5 33.6 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 7.8 7.7 13.8 -1.1 24.6 30.2 8.1 8.9 9.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 14.4 14.4 16.3 -1.1 24.8 30.6 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 14.5 14.4 14.6 -1.1 25.5 31.1 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 14.1 13.9 15.8 -1.4 20.3 26.5 14.5 15.2 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 68 32 0 100 12.3 12.2 14.9 -1.2 23.6 29.6 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 69 31 0 100 13.3 13.0 14.6 -1.3 19.9 27.0 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 15.1 15.2 16.1 -1.0 26.8 31.9 15.5 16.1 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 15.8 15.8 18.0 -1.1 24.8 30.5 16.3 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 70 30 0 100 14.6 14.5 15.4 -1.2 22.3 28.5 15.0 15.8 16.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 15.6 15.6 17.9 -1.1 28.5 33.3 15.9 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 67 33 0 100 12.6 12.7 13.8 -1.0 26.7 32.2 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 14.8 14.7 18.0 -1.3 23.7 29.3 15.2 15.8 16.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 8.8 8.9 11.9 -0.9 27.6 32.9 9.1 9.9 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 14.4 14.4 17.5 -1.2 24.7 30.2 14.8 15.4 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 14.5 14.6 18.1 -1.0 28.8 33.5 14.8 15.5 16.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 14.2 14.2 18.1 -1.3 24.5 29.8 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 69 31 0 100 14.9 15.0 16.0 -1.0 26.0 31.2 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 67 33 0 100 14.3 14.3 17.1 -1.2 25.6 31.6 14.6 15.4 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 13.6 13.6 14.1 -1.0 27.3 33.0 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 65 35 0 100 13.8 13.9 17.6 -1.1 26.7 32.4 14.3 15.3 16.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 13.5 13.7 16.6 -1.0 27.7 32.7 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 69 31 0 100 11.8 11.8 13.2 -1.0 25.4 31.1 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 14.9 14.8 18.2 -1.3 24.5 30.2 15.2 16.0 16.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------