***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 15.3 15.5 18.7 -0.8 32.9 37.0 15.5 16.2 16.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 14.8 15.3 18.7 -0.6 37.0 39.4 15.0 16.0 16.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 16.9 17.4 19.2 -0.7 34.7 38.5 17.3 18.2 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 12.4 12.9 16.6 -0.6 36.9 39.9 12.7 13.6 14.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 13.6 13.7 16.3 -1.0 29.1 34.8 13.9 14.8 15.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 12.7 12.9 14.6 -0.7 32.6 37.9 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 15.1 15.7 19.0 -0.4 40.7 41.8 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 8.1 8.3 14.4 -0.9 29.2 35.9 8.5 9.3 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 14.9 15.1 16.3 -0.9 30.7 36.3 15.2 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 14.8 15.0 15.0 -0.8 31.5 37.6 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 14.3 14.4 16.0 -1.0 26.6 33.4 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 12.7 12.7 15.2 -1.0 25.7 33.0 13.0 13.7 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 13.5 13.5 14.1 -1.1 24.5 31.6 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 63 37 0 100 15.4 15.9 16.6 -0.5 37.9 41.6 15.7 16.5 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 15.8 16.4 18.2 -0.5 39.4 41.6 16.1 16.9 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 14.9 15.1 15.2 -1.0 27.2 33.8 15.4 16.3 17.1 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 15.6 16.1 18.6 -0.5 40.6 42.1 15.7 16.6 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 13.2 13.6 14.1 -0.6 34.8 40.0 13.5 14.2 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 15.0 15.4 18.8 -0.7 35.8 38.9 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 9.3 9.5 11.9 -0.6 33.7 39.4 9.5 10.3 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 14.7 14.9 17.8 -0.8 32.4 37.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 14.7 15.2 18.7 -0.3 42.7 43.9 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 14.6 15.0 18.8 -0.6 36.5 40.0 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 15.2 15.5 16.4 -0.6 36.0 40.3 15.4 16.1 16.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 14.8 15.1 17.2 -0.8 32.6 36.9 15.1 15.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 13.8 13.9 14.2 -1.0 27.3 34.0 14.1 14.8 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 14.8 15.2 17.9 -0.8 33.6 37.5 15.2 16.2 17.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 13.5 14.1 17.1 -0.5 38.8 41.4 13.9 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 12.1 12.5 13.6 -0.6 33.9 39.1 12.4 13.2 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 60 40 0 100 15.2 15.7 19.0 -0.7 36.2 38.9 15.5 16.4 17.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------