***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 15.1 14.9 18.1 -1.3 17.2 22.6 15.4 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 14.7 14.4 17.9 -1.2 16.6 22.4 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 76 24 0 100 17.2 16.9 18.4 -1.3 16.1 21.5 17.5 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 12.9 12.8 16.0 -0.8 24.0 29.5 13.1 13.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 76 24 0 100 13.4 13.2 16.0 -1.2 15.8 21.7 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 69 31 0 100 12.7 12.7 14.1 -0.7 22.6 29.1 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 15.3 15.2 18.1 -1.1 20.2 25.6 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 78 22 0 100 8.4 8.1 13.7 -1.1 15.8 21.9 8.7 9.1 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 14.8 14.5 16.0 -1.1 15.1 21.1 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 77 23 0 100 14.7 14.5 14.5 -1.0 16.3 22.5 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 83 17 0 100 14.3 13.9 15.6 -1.3 12.5 18.6 14.7 15.1 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 81 19 0 100 12.5 12.3 14.7 -1.2 13.6 19.8 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 81 19 0 100 13.6 13.0 14.1 -1.2 9.6 17.1 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 15.4 15.3 16.0 -0.9 19.1 25.2 15.7 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 15.9 15.9 17.9 -0.9 23.5 29.0 16.2 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 15.0 14.6 15.1 -1.2 12.9 19.9 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 74 26 0 100 15.8 15.6 17.8 -1.1 19.2 25.0 16.1 16.5 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 76 24 0 100 12.9 12.7 13.7 -0.9 18.2 24.6 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 15.1 14.9 18.0 -1.3 16.1 21.9 15.4 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 9.1 8.9 11.7 -0.8 18.9 25.4 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 78 22 0 100 14.7 14.4 17.3 -1.2 15.6 21.2 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 14.7 14.7 18.0 -0.9 23.0 28.6 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 73 27 0 100 14.6 14.4 18.1 -1.2 17.7 23.6 14.9 15.3 15.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 15.1 15.0 15.9 -1.0 17.4 23.3 15.5 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 14.6 14.4 16.8 -1.2 17.2 22.9 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 79 21 0 100 13.9 13.6 13.8 -1.0 15.0 21.9 14.2 14.5 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 76 24 0 100 14.6 14.4 17.4 -1.2 17.8 23.2 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 13.6 13.5 16.5 -0.8 23.1 29.0 13.9 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 72 28 0 100 12.4 12.2 13.1 -0.9 18.1 24.4 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 15.3 15.1 18.2 -1.3 16.6 22.2 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------