***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 88 12 0 100 26.6 26.7 27.4 -2.7 19.8 21.4 28.0 29.4 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 91 9 0 100 26.3 26.0 27.2 -3.2 16.1 17.9 27.8 29.2 30.5 30 Becej 27400G00 90 10 0 100 26.4 26.2 27.2 -3.3 17.0 18.4 27.9 29.3 30.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 73 27 0 100 20.7 20.7 24.9 -2.2 23.4 25.0 21.6 23.0 24.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 86 14 0 100 27.3 27.3 25.8 -2.8 19.7 21.2 28.7 30.2 31.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 26.5 26.6 23.6 -2.3 21.3 22.7 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 81 19 0 100 26.4 26.4 27.5 -2.6 20.6 22.5 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 86 14 0 100 15.9 16.0 23.7 -2.7 20.5 21.9 17.0 18.2 19.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 83 17 0 100 27.0 27.0 26.7 -2.7 20.9 22.4 28.2 29.6 30.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 26.9 27.0 24.6 -2.6 21.6 23.0 28.0 29.4 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 90 10 0 100 26.9 26.9 26.1 -3.1 18.1 19.6 28.4 29.8 31.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 90 10 0 100 26.1 26.1 25.1 -2.9 18.6 20.1 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 97 3 0 100 27.3 26.9 25.6 -3.3 13.7 15.6 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 69 31 0 100 26.8 26.8 26.4 -2.2 24.8 26.3 27.6 29.0 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 88 12 0 100 28.2 28.1 27.8 -2.8 17.7 19.5 29.4 30.7 31.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 93 7 0 100 28.0 27.8 25.7 -3.1 16.2 17.8 29.5 30.9 32.2 30 Nis 06700G01 84 16 0 100 25.9 25.8 27.1 -2.8 19.1 21.0 27.1 28.5 29.7 29 Palic 37000G16 81 19 0 100 26.3 26.4 23.6 -2.5 22.2 23.6 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 91 9 0 100 25.8 25.5 27.1 -3.3 15.8 17.5 27.3 28.7 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 22.2 22.4 21.7 -2.3 23.0 24.4 23.2 24.4 25.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 83 17 0 100 27.1 27.1 27.3 -2.8 20.3 21.7 28.3 29.6 30.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 26.7 26.7 27.4 -2.3 23.2 25.0 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 85 15 0 100 26.3 26.1 27.3 -3.1 18.4 20.0 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 80 20 0 100 26.4 26.4 26.1 -2.6 21.5 23.1 27.5 28.8 30.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 86 14 0 100 26.9 26.8 26.2 -2.9 19.2 20.6 28.3 29.7 31.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 93 7 0 100 27.1 26.9 24.6 -3.1 16.1 17.6 28.5 29.8 31.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 87 13 0 100 26.3 26.4 26.8 -2.7 20.5 22.0 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 83 17 0 100 28.3 28.3 26.2 -2.4 20.5 22.3 29.4 30.6 31.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 80 20 0 100 21.6 21.8 22.8 -2.4 22.6 24.0 22.7 23.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 89 11 0 100 26.1 25.9 27.3 -3.2 16.8 18.5 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------