***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 27.2 27.4 28.9 -1.5 29.8 33.6 27.7 29.1 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 27.4 27.5 28.8 -1.7 28.9 32.9 27.8 29.2 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 27.0 27.0 28.9 -1.8 28.0 31.8 27.5 29.0 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 20.1 21.1 26.9 -1.0 35.9 39.2 20.9 22.3 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 27.3 27.5 27.3 -1.7 28.7 32.8 27.9 29.4 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 26.2 26.6 25.1 -1.3 32.0 35.4 26.7 28.1 29.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 27.3 27.7 29.2 -1.1 34.8 38.0 27.6 29.0 30.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 15.7 15.8 25.5 -1.6 29.9 33.6 16.1 17.4 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 27.1 27.2 27.9 -1.5 30.5 34.2 27.4 28.9 30.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 26.9 27.1 26.2 -1.4 31.8 35.3 27.2 28.7 30.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 26.8 26.8 27.5 -1.8 27.4 31.8 27.4 28.9 30.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 26.2 26.3 27.0 -1.7 28.3 32.6 26.7 28.2 29.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 27.0 26.8 26.7 -2.1 23.3 28.4 27.8 29.2 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 27.1 27.6 27.5 -1.1 35.8 38.2 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 28.1 28.9 29.5 -1.0 35.3 38.6 28.7 30.0 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 27.7 27.7 27.1 -1.8 26.6 31.4 28.4 29.9 31.4 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 27.0 27.3 28.8 -1.3 33.2 36.7 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 26.1 26.3 25.3 -1.3 32.8 36.1 26.3 27.7 29.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 26.9 26.9 28.8 -1.8 28.0 31.9 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 21.8 21.9 23.0 -1.5 30.8 34.3 22.1 23.6 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 27.0 27.2 28.6 -1.5 30.2 33.8 27.5 29.0 30.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 27.6 28.1 29.0 -1.0 36.7 39.4 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 27.0 27.1 29.0 -1.6 30.4 33.7 27.3 28.7 29.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 26.7 26.9 27.3 -1.4 32.5 35.6 27.0 28.4 29.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 27.1 27.3 27.4 -1.7 28.0 32.2 27.8 29.3 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 27.0 27.0 26.7 -1.7 28.1 32.3 27.4 28.8 30.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 26.9 27.2 28.1 -1.5 30.1 33.9 27.5 28.9 30.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 28.0 28.8 28.0 -1.0 36.1 39.4 28.6 29.9 31.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 21.4 21.5 24.3 -1.4 31.3 34.8 21.7 23.1 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 27.1 27.1 28.9 -1.7 28.8 32.8 27.5 28.9 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------