***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 28.0 29.1 30.0 -0.4 44.9 48.1 28.2 29.4 30.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 27.9 29.0 29.9 -0.4 45.3 48.4 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 28.0 29.0 30.3 -0.4 45.2 48.4 28.2 29.3 30.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 20.7 22.3 28.4 0.0 49.6 51.7 21.1 22.4 23.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 28.5 29.4 28.2 -0.7 40.7 45.2 28.8 30.1 31.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 27.0 27.8 25.6 -0.7 40.4 44.6 27.3 28.5 29.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 29.5 29.0 30.2 0.0 50.2 51.6 27.9 29.0 30.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 16.4 17.1 26.6 -0.7 40.8 44.9 16.6 17.7 18.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 27.8 28.8 28.4 -0.5 43.3 47.0 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 27.7 28.7 27.2 -0.4 44.8 47.9 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 28.0 28.7 28.0 -0.9 38.3 43.2 28.3 29.6 30.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 27.4 28.0 28.0 -1.0 37.3 42.5 27.6 28.9 30.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 28.3 28.7 26.8 -1.2 33.4 39.8 28.6 29.9 31.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 29.6 28.9 28.1 -0.2 48.0 50.4 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 28.8 30.3 29.9 0.2 52.3 53.5 29.0 30.2 31.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 29.1 29.7 27.6 -0.9 37.9 43.2 29.3 30.6 31.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 29.0 28.5 29.8 -0.1 49.2 51.0 27.3 28.5 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 28.6 27.9 26.5 -0.3 46.3 48.9 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 27.5 28.6 30.0 -0.4 44.3 47.8 27.8 28.9 30.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 24.7 23.6 23.8 -0.7 41.2 45.3 23.0 24.2 25.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 27.9 28.9 29.3 -0.5 43.1 46.9 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 29.6 29.2 29.9 0.1 51.5 52.7 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 27.8 28.7 30.1 -0.4 45.1 48.3 27.9 29.1 30.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 27.4 28.5 28.1 -0.3 46.7 49.4 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 28.1 29.1 28.2 -0.5 43.2 46.9 28.4 29.6 30.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 28.2 28.7 27.8 -0.9 37.2 42.8 28.4 29.6 30.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 27.8 28.9 29.1 -0.4 45.2 48.1 28.1 29.2 30.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 28.6 30.1 28.9 0.0 50.4 52.2 28.9 30.0 31.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 24.1 23.1 25.2 -0.5 43.5 46.9 22.3 23.5 24.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 27.8 28.9 30.0 -0.3 45.6 48.6 28.1 29.2 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------