***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 28.4 28.3 29.1 -1.3 26.2 30.8 28.6 29.4 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 28.1 28.0 28.9 -1.5 23.2 28.7 28.5 29.2 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 28.1 27.9 29.2 -1.5 23.7 28.4 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 21.5 21.8 27.2 -0.8 34.2 37.8 21.7 22.5 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 28.7 28.5 27.4 -1.5 23.8 28.1 29.0 29.9 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 27.4 27.3 25.0 -1.2 25.7 29.8 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 28.1 28.1 29.3 -1.0 30.6 35.3 28.2 28.9 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 16.8 16.7 25.6 -1.5 24.0 28.0 17.1 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 28.3 28.2 27.9 -1.4 26.2 30.1 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 28.0 27.9 26.3 -1.3 27.5 31.2 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 67 33 0 100 28.1 27.8 27.4 -1.7 21.1 25.7 28.5 29.4 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 27.4 27.1 27.0 -1.7 20.9 25.6 27.8 28.7 29.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 78 22 0 100 28.3 27.9 26.5 -2.0 15.7 21.0 28.9 29.8 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 27.9 28.1 27.5 -1.0 32.0 35.8 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 29.3 29.6 29.4 -0.9 33.4 37.0 29.5 30.3 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 29.1 28.8 27.1 -1.7 20.2 25.4 29.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 27.5 27.5 28.9 -1.1 27.8 33.0 27.8 28.6 29.3 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 27.2 27.2 25.4 -1.2 28.5 32.1 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 27.7 27.4 29.0 -1.6 22.4 27.8 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 23.1 22.9 23.1 -1.3 25.2 28.9 23.3 24.1 24.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 28.3 28.1 28.6 -1.4 25.4 29.7 28.5 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 28.1 28.3 29.1 -0.8 33.5 37.7 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 27.9 27.8 29.1 -1.5 25.2 30.0 28.2 28.9 29.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 27.7 27.7 27.4 -1.2 28.2 32.2 27.9 28.6 29.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 28.5 28.3 27.5 -1.4 24.7 29.3 28.8 29.6 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 69 31 0 100 28.2 27.9 26.8 -1.7 19.7 24.5 28.6 29.5 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 28.1 28.0 28.3 -1.3 26.9 31.4 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 29.3 29.5 28.1 -0.8 33.8 37.5 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 22.6 22.4 24.4 -1.3 26.2 30.0 22.8 23.5 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 28.0 27.8 29.0 -1.5 24.0 29.2 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------