***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-26.07.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 11.2 19.9 14.1 116.9 71.5 62.5 3.5 8.4 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 7.3 12.4 12.9 115.7 70.8 60.4 2.5 5.5 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 88 12 100 9.8 15.9 12.5 105.1 68.4 59.8 3.8 8.1 14.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 85 15 100 12.4 19.2 11.8 107.4 68.7 59.9 4.7 9.9 17.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 8.2 11.3 10.0 92.9 65.1 58.3 2.5 6.0 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 15.3 17.5 13.5 129.5 73.4 65.3 3.3 7.2 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 9.7 16.5 12.8 117.4 71.3 62.2 3.5 7.4 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 12.1 17.5 14.5 107.6 67.8 60.7 4.4 9.4 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 8.1 12.4 11.9 100.3 67.0 61.7 2.6 6.1 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 85 15 100 13.8 20.1 15.0 102.9 67.0 61.4 5.3 11.0 19.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 8.7 12.2 10.0 102.8 67.2 59.2 3.1 6.6 11.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 9.4 13.9 10.1 106.3 67.7 59.3 3.0 6.8 13.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 6.6 11.1 9.2 106.0 68.4 60.2 2.2 5.2 10.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 85 15 100 13.2 20.4 17.1 105.3 67.9 60.3 4.7 10.3 19.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 84 16 100 5.9 8.6 8.5 98.2 67.3 57.4 2.0 4.5 8.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 7.1 10.9 10.1 111.6 69.5 60.8 3.0 5.7 9.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 10.8 18.8 12.9 120.4 71.9 62.3 3.9 8.4 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 86 14 100 12.2 16.8 16.5 102.6 65.8 61.0 5.1 10.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 11.6 19.8 13.6 117.7 71.2 60.3 4.0 8.9 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 7.8 10.1 15.6 97.7 63.5 57.7 3.1 6.4 11.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 9.1 15.7 13.6 116.4 71.0 62.0 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 11.3 18.9 13.0 121.9 72.2 60.5 4.4 9.0 15.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 85 15 100 9.5 16.1 14.6 118.6 71.3 60.3 3.6 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 85 15 100 11.2 17.4 14.8 104.7 67.5 61.2 3.6 8.5 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 10.6 17.5 13.8 112.7 70.8 62.2 3.5 7.8 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.0 14.4 7.5 113.4 69.7 55.7 3.4 7.2 12.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 10.1 16.4 14.7 118.6 71.9 62.7 4.3 8.2 13.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 9.8 15.5 10.8 108.5 69.2 60.5 3.5 7.6 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 84 16 100 14.6 20.2 16.8 103.7 65.9 60.4 5.3 11.4 20.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 11.6 18.2 12.8 111.7 70.0 59.9 4.7 9.3 15.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------