***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 27.07.2020.-02.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 4.0 15.1 11.5 111.1 69.1 50.2 3.4 7.3 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 10.2 14.6 11.8 106.0 67.9 51.9 3.5 7.3 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 9.8 14.1 12.8 106.9 67.7 55.0 2.8 6.7 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 9.0 9.8 9.1 82.2 60.5 48.6 2.8 6.4 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 8.3 10.8 10.3 93.1 64.4 53.7 2.8 6.2 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.3 10.2 75.8 56.8 44.9 2.9 6.3 11.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.3 10.1 11.7 107.4 68.2 52.5 2.3 5.1 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 15.3 15.0 9.7 80.3 58.9 47.1 4.8 10.5 19.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 9.1 11.8 11.4 92.9 64.1 54.1 2.9 6.5 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 10.3 11.1 10.9 84.0 60.9 50.1 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.8 12.9 10.6 99.5 65.5 55.1 3.2 7.2 13.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.1 8.4 83.2 60.2 47.7 2.7 6.6 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 8.5 9.4 8.1 79.8 60.4 49.5 2.8 6.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.5 13.9 14.1 91.9 63.9 53.5 3.2 7.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 7.9 8.3 7.9 82.6 60.6 46.9 2.2 5.3 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 8.9 8.6 7.8 74.4 57.5 44.6 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.6 14.6 12.1 115.7 70.1 53.1 2.8 6.6 12.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.8 14.5 12.6 82.1 60.2 49.3 3.9 9.5 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 9.5 12.3 11.5 98.5 65.9 51.1 3.0 6.7 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 11.1 13.5 13.4 95.2 63.2 53.5 4.5 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 10.4 12.5 10.4 91.0 63.4 52.2 3.4 7.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 8.7 12.1 11.6 106.7 67.6 53.0 2.9 6.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.5 11.7 11.6 90.4 63.8 52.0 2.6 6.4 12.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 10.9 13.0 13.3 91.7 63.3 53.4 4.1 8.2 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.8 13.2 12.9 110.3 68.8 54.4 2.4 6.0 11.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 8.2 10.1 8.6 93.9 63.6 52.9 3.4 6.5 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 9.6 14.2 13.1 113.1 69.4 53.4 2.7 6.4 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.5 7.1 68.1 56.0 43.0 3.2 6.7 12.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.1 21.8 15.0 93.7 63.1 53.5 6.9 13.9 24.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 8.6 11.8 12.0 106.0 67.8 51.2 2.8 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------