***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.08.2020.-09.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 3.7 12.2 7.1 86.1 61.7 36.6 4.3 8.3 13.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 3.6 16.7 8.1 106.7 67.5 37.2 4.4 9.0 15.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.1 12.5 8.6 105.8 67.9 41.1 3.4 6.8 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 67 33 0 100 5.4 14.8 5.6 70.3 56.9 33.1 6.1 11.8 19.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 68 32 0 100 3.1 8.3 5.7 75.5 58.5 36.2 3.6 6.4 10.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 3.3 7.5 5.2 56.6 50.5 33.3 3.1 7.4 13.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 3.2 12.2 7.6 97.2 65.0 37.6 3.5 7.2 12.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 69 31 0 100 5.6 18.9 8.0 90.5 62.7 37.0 6.6 12.7 21.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 68 32 0 100 3.6 10.8 6.9 83.3 60.6 40.0 4.2 7.8 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 70 30 0 100 4.8 16.1 8.6 89.2 62.7 38.2 5.8 10.8 17.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 74 26 0 100 3.6 12.9 5.7 84.7 61.4 36.4 4.8 9.0 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 71 29 0 100 3.7 13.0 6.1 87.9 62.0 36.4 4.5 8.8 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 71 29 0 100 2.5 8.5 5.2 70.6 56.3 33.1 3.1 6.7 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 62 38 0 100 3.9 15.6 10.5 98.4 65.7 44.3 3.7 8.4 15.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 3.5 9.4 3.8 58.8 52.3 30.8 4.4 8.7 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 2.7 7.9 4.8 68.5 55.5 32.5 3.4 6.6 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 65 35 0 100 4.0 15.8 7.4 97.6 65.0 38.8 4.2 9.0 16.4 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 4.8 14.2 10.3 87.0 61.9 39.1 5.6 10.0 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 3.4 18.3 8.2 108.1 68.0 39.0 3.8 8.9 16.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 4.2 12.7 10.1 88.1 61.2 41.8 4.3 8.7 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.4 11.6 7.0 90.9 63.4 39.6 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 3.8 10.9 7.0 82.2 60.3 39.0 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.6 12.9 8.6 110.5 68.9 43.6 3.6 7.1 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 64 36 0 100 5.7 19.4 10.0 98.3 65.5 42.7 6.1 11.7 19.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 4.1 12.0 6.7 79.0 60.2 36.9 4.1 8.5 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 3.0 8.4 4.0 69.7 55.2 33.3 3.2 6.8 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 3.6 12.3 7.1 80.8 60.4 36.5 4.0 8.4 15.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 69 31 0 100 3.5 9.5 4.9 65.3 54.7 31.8 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.6 17.5 10.9 86.9 61.1 42.7 7.0 12.6 20.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 69 31 0 100 2.3 10.1 8.3 102.5 66.7 38.1 2.7 5.6 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------