***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.08.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 2.6 10.3 7.7 100.4 67.0 38.2 2.6 5.5 9.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 71 29 0 100 1.8 9.5 7.6 106.3 68.2 35.2 2.2 4.8 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.7 11.4 7.4 93.7 64.8 38.1 2.7 6.4 11.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 2.3 13.1 8.8 138.4 75.3 41.9 2.5 5.3 9.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 65 35 0 100 1.9 10.1 8.4 134.4 74.3 42.7 2.1 4.3 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.5 19.2 11.7 146.4 76.8 42.0 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 2.1 9.8 8.5 107.5 68.8 36.6 2.4 5.0 9.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 4.0 14.5 8.7 111.2 68.2 41.0 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.4 11.8 8.7 118.6 71.0 42.5 2.6 5.5 9.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.3 13.2 9.6 109.9 68.2 41.3 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 2.5 10.4 7.2 134.5 74.1 41.8 2.8 5.1 8.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 2.0 10.2 7.4 137.7 74.7 42.0 2.2 4.4 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 2.3 13.3 9.6 161.5 79.5 42.5 2.3 4.7 8.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 4.2 16.1 11.9 110.2 69.0 41.2 4.8 8.9 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 1.8 15.4 8.6 169.6 80.7 37.8 2.2 4.8 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 65 35 0 100 1.7 11.4 8.4 155.5 78.5 40.7 1.8 4.0 7.2 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 1.8 7.5 8.3 105.1 67.8 35.4 2.3 4.3 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 3.4 9.7 11.6 104.3 66.7 42.0 3.7 6.3 9.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 2.5 10.6 7.5 104.0 67.4 35.5 3.0 5.9 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.7 11.3 10.9 94.2 63.5 42.8 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.1 14.1 8.6 120.1 71.5 42.7 3.4 6.8 11.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 2.2 10.7 9.0 113.6 69.9 39.4 2.6 5.4 9.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 2.4 10.2 7.8 100.9 66.4 36.1 2.8 5.7 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 4.2 13.2 10.8 105.8 67.7 41.5 4.3 7.8 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 64 36 0 100 3.1 13.9 10.0 133.4 74.5 42.9 3.4 6.4 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 71 29 0 100 2.5 15.5 8.5 162.5 79.7 40.1 3.0 5.9 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.0 13.7 9.1 113.8 70.2 40.6 3.0 6.6 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 2.0 13.6 8.9 158.3 78.7 39.7 2.4 5.0 8.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 4.7 14.3 12.5 105.3 66.7 43.7 4.7 8.7 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 70 30 0 100 2.0 10.3 7.5 101.2 66.9 35.5 2.2 5.3 10.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------