***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 16.07.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.07.2020.-16.08.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 45.3 56.4 40.4 105.5 64.9 57.4 21.2 37.2 58.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 45.0 53.1 40.4 109.1 65.4 53.3 21.6 35.9 54.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 49.7 57.2 41.3 103.7 63.9 55.8 30.5 43.8 59.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 86 14 100 50.4 59.1 35.3 97.2 61.9 55.2 27.8 44.4 64.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 34.7 40.7 34.4 96.6 61.8 55.8 18.2 30.2 45.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 49.5 53.1 40.6 98.9 60.6 52.9 28.4 42.4 59.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 40.9 48.1 40.6 108.3 65.2 54.7 19.7 32.5 49.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 83 17 100 61.6 66.4 40.9 96.4 59.5 53.5 33.5 53.0 77.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 42.4 49.2 38.9 98.0 61.7 56.5 25.3 38.2 53.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 53.7 58.6 44.2 96.1 59.9 54.1 27.6 45.5 68.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 85 15 100 39.4 48.5 33.6 103.5 63.8 57.6 20.1 33.7 51.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 83 17 100 43.2 49.8 31.9 100.6 62.3 55.5 23.0 37.0 54.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 38.6 44.2 32.1 99.9 62.4 55.0 19.9 32.3 48.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 59.2 67.2 53.6 101.1 62.1 54.6 32.0 50.6 73.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 37.6 44.5 28.8 97.3 63.3 54.6 19.9 32.0 47.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 34.6 38.5 31.1 97.6 61.4 53.8 18.1 29.0 43.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 49.7 57.1 40.6 111.0 66.0 55.2 31.9 43.7 57.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 56.6 57.8 51.1 93.7 57.6 51.5 34.8 50.0 67.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 52.2 61.0 40.9 107.3 64.8 53.5 25.7 42.1 62.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 84 16 100 48.8 49.9 50.0 94.2 56.6 51.3 32.2 44.3 58.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 85 15 100 47.5 56.5 39.6 104.4 64.4 58.2 29.2 42.7 58.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 48.6 54.0 40.6 106.8 64.4 54.6 30.9 42.2 55.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 44.1 51.2 42.7 104.9 63.9 54.4 22.8 36.4 53.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 58.9 64.5 48.8 99.7 61.3 54.3 36.1 52.0 70.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 48.4 59.8 43.3 108.7 66.3 59.3 29.8 43.1 59.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 39.5 48.6 28.6 107.3 65.1 57.4 20.6 33.3 49.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 48.3 59.0 44.1 107.9 65.7 58.0 26.9 41.6 59.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 83 17 100 41.9 47.9 31.7 94.9 61.6 54.1 21.9 35.6 53.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 73.0 76.6 55.2 97.5 58.9 53.2 47.9 65.8 86.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 43.2 50.0 40.7 106.1 64.4 53.5 20.9 34.5 52.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------