***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 92 8 100 16.1 16.5 19.1 0.6 60.8 60.2 15.2 16.0 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 48 52 100 16.6 16.6 19.1 0.8 65.5 64.6 14.8 15.7 16.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 91 9 100 18.1 18.6 18.9 0.6 61.3 60.7 16.9 17.9 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 96 4 100 13.8 13.7 16.5 0.0 50.8 50.8 12.5 13.7 14.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 94 6 100 14.2 14.1 16.6 0.0 50.9 50.8 13.2 14.1 15.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 13.3 12.6 14.3 -0.5 37.8 38.4 12.4 13.0 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 16.3 16.7 19.1 0.5 60.0 59.4 15.3 16.2 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 9.1 8.8 14.3 -0.1 47.4 47.6 8.0 8.9 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 93 7 100 15.5 15.7 17.3 0.3 56.5 56.1 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 89 11 100 15.4 15.4 15.3 0.2 54.2 54.0 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 94 6 100 15.0 14.9 16.1 0.0 50.1 50.1 14.1 14.9 15.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 13.3 13.1 15.1 -0.1 47.1 47.2 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 86 14 100 14.4 13.9 14.9 -0.3 42.4 43.1 13.5 14.3 15.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 16.1 16.5 17.1 0.5 61.0 60.3 15.2 16.0 16.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 16.8 16.5 17.9 -0.2 46.4 46.6 15.9 16.7 17.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 15.7 15.3 15.8 -0.2 44.6 44.9 14.7 15.6 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 36 64 100 17.6 17.8 19.0 1.1 71.4 70.0 15.9 16.7 17.5 29 Palic 37000G16 0 91 9 100 13.7 13.8 14.3 0.2 53.9 53.7 12.7 13.6 14.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 48 52 100 16.5 16.5 19.0 0.8 65.7 64.8 15.0 15.8 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 86 14 100 9.7 9.3 12.0 -0.2 44.4 44.8 8.9 9.6 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 94 6 100 15.3 15.5 18.3 0.2 55.3 55.0 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 49 51 100 16.2 16.2 18.8 0.8 66.6 65.6 14.6 15.4 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 89 11 100 15.4 15.8 18.6 0.6 63.0 62.4 14.4 15.2 16.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 91 9 100 15.9 16.2 16.7 0.3 58.1 57.7 14.9 15.8 16.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 93 7 100 15.4 15.6 17.7 0.3 56.2 55.8 14.3 15.3 16.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.5 13.8 14.2 -0.5 36.6 37.4 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 92 8 100 15.5 16.0 18.3 0.5 60.4 59.9 14.3 15.4 16.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 14.3 13.9 16.9 -0.3 43.4 43.6 13.3 14.2 15.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 88 12 100 13.3 13.0 13.6 -0.1 48.1 48.4 12.1 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 90 10 100 16.3 16.7 19.2 0.6 61.0 60.4 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------