***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.07.2014.-03.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 16.1 15.2 18.8 -0.5 38.3 40.5 15.0 15.8 16.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 16.2 15.6 19.1 -0.3 42.7 44.0 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 18.3 17.5 18.6 -0.5 37.9 40.0 17.2 18.1 18.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 12.1 11.9 16.1 -1.3 20.5 25.1 12.7 13.7 14.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 13.2 13.2 16.1 -1.0 25.9 29.9 13.5 14.3 15.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 73 27 0 100 12.3 12.3 14.6 -1.1 23.4 27.5 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 16.5 15.8 19.0 -0.4 40.4 42.1 15.5 16.3 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 8.2 8.3 14.5 -0.7 31.9 34.0 8.3 9.1 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 14.7 14.8 16.4 -0.8 29.5 32.9 14.9 15.7 16.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 14.7 14.8 14.9 -0.8 31.2 33.7 14.8 15.5 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 14.4 14.4 15.8 -0.8 30.2 33.3 14.5 15.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 12.5 12.5 15.4 -0.9 28.7 31.4 12.7 13.4 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 72 28 0 100 13.2 13.2 14.8 -1.1 22.9 27.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 16.5 15.8 16.8 -0.4 39.8 41.5 15.5 16.2 16.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 75 25 0 100 15.7 15.3 16.6 -1.6 17.0 21.4 16.2 17.0 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 68 32 0 100 14.6 14.6 15.5 -1.0 24.4 28.5 15.1 15.8 16.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 16.9 16.7 18.8 0.0 49.7 50.0 15.9 16.7 17.4 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.0 14.3 -0.7 32.3 34.4 13.0 13.9 14.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 83 17 100 16.2 15.7 19.0 -0.3 43.6 44.9 15.3 16.0 16.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 9.0 9.2 12.8 -0.7 33.5 35.4 9.2 10.0 10.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 15.9 14.8 17.7 -0.7 32.2 35.2 14.8 15.6 16.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 15.8 15.5 18.7 -0.1 48.6 49.1 14.9 15.6 16.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 15.7 15.1 18.5 -0.3 42.4 43.9 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 16.3 15.5 16.4 -0.6 36.1 38.1 15.3 16.0 16.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 14.6 14.7 16.9 -0.8 31.7 34.6 14.7 15.5 16.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 68 32 0 100 13.5 13.4 14.9 -1.1 23.5 28.1 13.9 14.6 15.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 16.0 14.7 17.9 -0.6 36.6 38.9 14.5 15.6 16.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 75 25 0 100 13.3 13.0 16.4 -1.5 17.6 22.3 13.9 14.6 15.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 12.2 12.4 13.8 -0.7 32.6 34.7 12.4 13.3 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 16.4 15.7 19.1 -0.5 40.0 41.8 15.4 16.2 16.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------