***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 15.3 15.5 18.4 -0.8 32.9 37.2 15.5 16.2 16.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 14.6 15.0 18.7 -0.7 35.1 38.5 14.9 15.9 16.8 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 16.9 17.1 18.4 -0.8 33.0 36.9 17.1 18.1 19.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 60 40 0 100 12.1 11.9 16.2 -1.1 24.7 30.2 12.4 13.4 14.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 13.6 13.7 16.1 -0.9 28.7 33.4 14.0 14.7 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 12.8 12.9 14.9 -0.8 31.8 36.3 12.9 13.6 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 14.9 15.3 18.7 -0.8 33.8 37.5 15.2 16.1 17.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 8.1 8.2 14.6 -0.9 31.0 34.6 8.3 9.2 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 14.8 15.0 16.4 -0.9 30.5 34.7 15.1 15.9 16.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 14.8 14.9 14.9 -0.9 30.6 34.3 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 14.5 14.7 15.9 -0.8 32.4 36.4 14.7 15.4 16.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 12.8 12.9 15.6 -0.8 31.3 35.3 13.0 13.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 13.9 14.0 15.1 -0.7 33.0 37.2 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 15.5 15.6 16.5 -0.8 32.3 36.4 15.7 16.4 17.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 15.8 15.6 16.8 -1.3 22.9 28.1 16.1 16.9 17.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 15.2 15.4 15.8 -0.7 31.9 36.4 15.4 16.3 17.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 15.4 16.0 18.3 -0.5 38.9 41.4 15.6 16.5 17.3 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 13.2 13.3 14.2 -0.9 31.1 34.7 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 14.9 15.3 18.6 -0.7 35.7 38.9 15.1 16.0 16.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 9.2 9.5 13.0 -0.8 34.0 37.0 9.4 10.2 10.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 14.6 14.8 17.5 -0.9 30.3 35.0 14.9 15.6 16.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 14.5 14.9 18.1 -0.7 36.0 39.3 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 14.5 14.8 18.2 -0.7 34.9 38.3 14.7 15.5 16.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 15.2 15.3 16.3 -0.8 31.9 35.8 15.4 16.1 16.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 14.8 14.9 16.7 -0.9 30.3 35.1 15.0 15.9 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 14.0 14.2 15.2 -0.7 34.0 37.8 14.2 14.9 15.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 14.7 15.0 17.5 -0.8 33.1 37.3 15.0 16.1 17.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 61 39 0 100 13.7 13.6 16.7 -1.2 24.2 29.7 14.0 14.7 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 12.0 12.1 13.8 -0.9 30.7 34.4 12.2 13.1 14.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 15.1 15.4 18.8 -0.8 33.8 37.5 15.3 16.2 17.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------