***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 14.4 14.3 17.9 -1.3 23.3 28.2 14.8 15.6 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 14.3 14.3 18.1 -1.0 27.6 31.9 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 16.9 16.8 17.8 -1.2 23.2 28.5 17.3 18.0 18.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 77 23 0 100 12.1 11.6 15.5 -1.7 15.9 21.1 12.8 13.8 14.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 71 29 0 100 12.9 12.6 15.4 -1.4 18.7 24.3 13.4 14.2 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 12.3 12.2 14.2 -1.1 23.7 28.8 12.6 13.2 13.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 68 32 0 100 14.6 14.7 18.1 -1.1 25.8 30.1 15.0 15.7 16.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 7.8 7.6 13.9 -1.3 20.7 26.1 8.2 9.0 9.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 72 28 0 100 14.1 13.9 15.6 -1.3 20.1 25.7 14.6 15.3 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 14.2 14.0 14.2 -1.3 20.3 25.8 14.6 15.3 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 13.8 13.6 15.2 -1.2 22.1 27.5 14.1 14.8 15.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 12.1 11.9 14.9 -1.3 20.9 26.3 12.4 13.0 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 73 27 0 100 13.0 13.0 14.4 -1.1 23.1 27.7 13.4 14.1 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 14.8 14.6 15.8 -1.2 22.5 27.3 15.1 15.8 16.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 80 20 0 100 15.1 14.7 16.1 -1.8 15.4 20.1 15.7 16.4 17.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 73 27 0 100 14.8 14.7 15.1 -1.3 21.6 26.5 15.2 15.8 16.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 15.3 15.4 17.7 -0.8 31.1 34.9 15.5 16.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 12.2 12.0 13.6 -1.2 21.7 26.8 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 14.7 14.8 18.0 -1.0 27.6 32.0 15.0 15.6 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 8.5 8.3 12.3 -1.1 25.0 29.4 8.7 9.4 10.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 13.9 13.7 16.8 -1.4 19.7 25.5 14.4 15.1 15.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 14.1 14.2 17.5 -0.9 28.8 33.1 14.3 15.0 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 14.1 14.0 17.6 -1.1 25.5 30.3 14.3 14.9 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 14.4 14.2 15.6 -1.2 21.8 27.0 14.8 15.6 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 14.0 13.8 16.1 -1.4 20.5 25.7 14.5 15.3 16.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 13.5 13.4 14.4 -1.3 19.9 24.9 13.9 14.5 15.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 67 33 0 100 14.3 14.1 17.0 -1.3 23.2 27.9 14.7 15.7 16.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 80 20 0 100 12.6 12.3 15.9 -1.7 15.7 20.4 13.2 14.0 14.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 66 34 0 100 12.0 11.9 13.1 -1.1 23.6 28.2 12.4 13.2 13.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 14.7 14.7 18.2 -1.1 25.9 30.5 15.1 15.8 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------