***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 15.3 15.4 18.5 -0.5 33.0 35.2 15.4 15.9 16.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.3 18.7 -0.3 38.9 40.2 15.1 15.7 16.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 17.4 17.5 18.4 -0.5 32.9 35.0 17.5 18.0 18.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 78 22 0 100 12.7 12.5 16.1 -1.0 18.6 21.9 13.1 13.7 14.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 13.5 13.5 16.0 -0.8 21.9 25.0 13.8 14.3 14.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 77 23 0 100 12.6 12.6 14.5 -0.9 20.9 24.2 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 16.3 15.6 18.7 -0.5 35.0 36.7 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 76 24 0 100 8.4 8.4 14.3 -0.8 24.5 26.9 8.7 9.1 9.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 14.9 14.9 16.4 -0.7 26.1 28.6 15.1 15.6 16.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 72 28 0 100 14.8 14.8 14.8 -0.7 26.0 28.4 15.0 15.5 15.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 70 30 0 100 14.4 14.4 15.8 -0.7 25.8 28.4 14.6 15.1 15.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 12.6 12.6 15.2 -0.8 23.9 26.3 12.9 13.3 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 79 21 0 100 13.6 13.6 14.8 -0.8 21.8 25.0 13.9 14.4 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 15.6 15.7 16.6 -0.5 32.2 34.2 15.7 16.1 16.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 84 16 0 100 15.7 15.5 16.9 -1.2 16.3 19.5 16.2 16.7 17.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 76 24 0 100 15.1 15.1 15.5 -0.8 22.0 25.2 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 16.6 16.4 18.5 -0.1 47.5 47.4 16.1 16.5 16.9 29 Palic 37000G16 72 28 0 100 12.9 13.1 14.1 -0.7 26.7 29.0 13.3 13.8 14.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 16.0 15.6 18.6 -0.3 39.5 40.7 15.4 15.8 16.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 9.0 9.1 12.5 -0.7 25.8 28.5 9.3 9.8 10.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 64 36 0 100 14.8 14.8 17.6 -0.7 26.3 28.9 15.0 15.4 15.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 15.5 15.2 18.3 -0.2 42.5 43.0 14.9 15.4 15.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 15.4 15.0 18.2 -0.4 36.6 38.2 14.9 15.3 15.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 15.2 15.4 16.3 -0.6 29.7 31.8 15.4 15.9 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 14.8 14.8 16.8 -0.7 26.8 29.5 15.0 15.5 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 81 19 0 100 13.9 13.8 14.7 -0.9 18.8 21.9 14.2 14.6 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 15.0 15.1 17.7 -0.5 32.1 34.4 15.1 15.7 16.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 84 16 0 100 13.4 13.2 16.5 -1.2 15.8 19.1 13.8 14.4 14.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 77 23 0 100 12.4 12.5 13.6 -0.7 25.4 27.9 12.7 13.2 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 15.5 15.7 18.8 -0.5 35.2 37.0 15.6 16.1 16.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------