***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.08.2014.-10.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 64 36 0 100 27.4 27.2 28.8 -2.0 24.2 29.0 28.0 29.3 30.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 26.9 27.1 29.2 -1.7 27.4 31.9 27.6 28.9 30.2 30 Becej 27400G00 64 36 0 100 27.0 27.0 29.0 -1.8 26.3 31.0 27.6 28.9 30.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 20.2 19.5 27.1 -2.4 18.7 24.2 20.9 22.2 23.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 27.7 27.4 27.2 -2.0 23.5 28.4 28.3 29.6 30.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 26.6 26.7 25.6 -1.4 29.0 33.6 27.0 28.3 29.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 69 31 0 100 26.6 26.8 29.0 -1.8 26.4 30.8 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 16.1 16.3 25.9 -1.5 29.8 33.7 16.5 17.6 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 27.3 27.2 27.4 -1.9 25.6 30.1 27.8 29.1 30.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 27.1 27.2 26.3 -1.7 27.7 31.9 27.6 28.8 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 27.3 27.3 27.0 -1.7 27.4 32.1 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 26.6 26.8 27.1 -1.5 29.5 33.6 27.1 28.4 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 27.7 27.8 26.6 -1.6 27.5 32.2 28.2 29.5 30.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 27.0 27.2 27.2 -1.6 29.9 33.8 27.4 28.7 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 28.1 27.4 27.6 -2.5 16.4 22.1 28.8 29.9 31.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 28.3 28.2 26.9 -1.7 26.1 31.1 28.8 30.2 31.5 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 26.3 26.4 28.8 -1.7 27.9 32.1 26.9 28.3 29.6 30 Palic 37000G16 63 37 0 100 26.2 26.4 25.5 -1.6 29.8 33.6 26.7 27.8 28.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 66 34 0 100 26.6 26.8 29.3 -1.7 28.4 32.7 27.2 28.5 29.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 62 38 0 100 22.2 22.7 23.9 -1.3 32.7 36.0 22.7 23.9 25.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 27.4 27.1 28.3 -2.0 24.2 29.0 27.9 29.1 30.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 67 33 0 100 26.6 26.9 28.7 -1.7 27.7 31.8 27.4 28.8 30.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 26.9 27.2 28.9 -1.6 29.4 33.5 27.5 28.7 29.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 26.7 26.9 27.1 -1.6 28.8 32.9 27.2 28.4 29.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 27.5 27.1 27.3 -2.2 21.5 26.5 28.1 29.3 30.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 27.6 27.5 26.8 -1.6 26.5 31.6 28.0 29.3 30.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 27.0 26.8 28.0 -2.0 23.8 28.5 27.6 28.8 30.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 68 32 0 100 28.0 27.4 27.4 -2.4 18.6 24.4 28.6 29.8 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 21.6 22.0 24.7 -1.4 32.0 35.5 22.1 23.3 24.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 26.8 27.0 29.2 -1.8 26.7 31.2 27.5 28.8 30.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------