***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.08.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 27.9 27.4 28.6 -1.9 22.5 28.1 28.3 29.6 30.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 27.8 27.8 29.0 -1.4 29.3 34.6 28.1 29.3 30.4 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 27.8 27.6 28.8 -1.7 25.1 30.8 28.2 29.4 30.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 80 20 0 100 20.2 19.8 26.9 -2.3 17.7 22.5 21.3 22.5 23.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 73 27 0 100 28.0 27.7 26.9 -2.1 20.8 25.8 28.9 30.2 31.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 27.0 26.7 25.2 -1.6 25.0 29.6 27.4 28.6 29.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 27.5 27.5 28.7 -1.5 27.8 32.9 27.8 29.0 30.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 16.2 16.0 25.4 -1.7 25.6 30.2 16.6 17.8 18.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 27.5 27.2 27.1 -1.9 22.2 27.2 28.1 29.4 30.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 27.4 27.2 25.9 -1.8 24.3 29.1 27.9 29.2 30.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 27.8 27.6 26.7 -1.7 24.4 29.4 28.3 29.6 30.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 27.3 27.1 26.7 -1.7 25.5 30.3 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 65 35 0 100 28.1 27.9 26.2 -1.8 23.4 28.5 28.7 30.1 31.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 27.5 27.5 26.7 -1.5 29.0 33.8 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 82 18 0 100 28.2 27.9 27.5 -2.3 17.2 21.8 29.1 30.3 31.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 28.7 28.5 26.6 -1.9 22.8 27.9 29.4 30.7 32.0 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 26.9 27.2 28.6 -1.3 31.3 35.7 27.3 28.6 29.8 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 26.6 26.5 25.1 -1.6 26.9 31.4 27.0 28.1 29.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 27.3 27.5 29.0 -1.4 30.0 35.5 27.7 28.9 30.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 22.7 22.6 23.3 -1.5 28.6 32.9 23.0 24.2 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 27.5 27.2 28.0 -2.0 21.2 26.6 28.2 29.4 30.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 27.5 27.7 28.4 -1.3 31.0 35.6 27.8 29.1 30.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 27.6 27.7 28.6 -1.4 30.1 35.6 27.9 29.1 30.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 27.1 27.0 26.7 -1.6 26.9 31.7 27.5 28.7 29.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 69 31 0 100 27.8 27.4 27.0 -2.1 19.8 24.9 28.5 29.7 30.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 72 28 0 100 27.6 27.5 26.4 -1.9 22.0 27.1 28.5 29.7 30.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 27.6 27.3 27.7 -1.9 22.2 27.6 28.2 29.3 30.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 79 21 0 100 28.1 27.8 27.2 -2.3 17.8 22.6 29.0 30.2 31.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 22.0 21.9 24.2 -1.5 29.0 33.3 22.3 23.6 24.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 27.6 27.6 29.0 -1.5 27.4 33.0 28.0 29.2 30.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------