***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-17.08.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 28.0 27.7 28.6 -1.7 17.3 21.5 28.6 29.4 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 67 33 0 100 28.1 27.9 29.0 -1.4 21.5 26.2 28.5 29.2 29.9 30 Becej 27400G00 77 23 0 100 27.8 27.6 28.8 -1.5 18.7 23.2 28.4 29.2 29.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 95 5 0 100 20.7 20.1 26.6 -2.3 10.0 13.4 21.7 22.5 23.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 84 16 0 100 28.2 27.7 26.9 -1.9 14.3 17.8 29.0 29.9 30.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 78 22 0 100 27.0 26.8 24.9 -1.6 18.1 21.0 27.7 28.5 29.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 27.8 27.6 28.8 -1.5 20.5 24.8 28.2 28.9 29.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 16.6 16.4 25.3 -1.6 18.2 21.1 17.1 17.8 18.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 79 21 0 100 27.9 27.5 27.3 -1.7 16.4 19.9 28.5 29.3 30.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 81 19 0 100 27.5 27.2 25.9 -1.7 17.5 20.8 28.2 29.1 29.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 76 24 0 100 27.9 27.5 26.7 -1.6 18.0 21.4 28.5 29.4 30.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 27.2 26.9 26.4 -1.6 18.1 21.2 27.8 28.7 29.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 80 20 0 100 28.3 28.0 26.1 -1.7 17.1 20.2 28.9 29.8 30.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 76 24 0 100 27.5 27.5 27.0 -1.3 21.5 25.3 28.1 28.9 29.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 95 5 0 100 28.7 27.9 27.3 -2.5 8.5 11.9 29.5 30.2 30.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 80 20 0 100 28.9 28.5 26.5 -1.7 16.4 19.7 29.6 30.5 31.3 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 27.4 27.3 28.7 -1.2 24.0 28.1 27.8 28.6 29.3 29 Palic 37000G16 80 20 0 100 26.8 26.7 25.1 -1.5 19.3 22.7 27.4 28.1 28.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 69 31 0 100 27.5 27.4 29.0 -1.4 21.9 26.7 28.0 28.8 29.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 80 20 0 100 22.7 22.6 23.2 -1.5 19.9 23.2 23.3 24.1 24.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 80 20 0 100 27.9 27.5 28.1 -1.8 15.2 19.2 28.5 29.3 30.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 66 34 0 100 27.8 27.7 28.5 -1.3 22.7 27.0 28.2 29.0 29.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 27.7 27.6 28.6 -1.3 21.9 26.4 28.1 28.9 29.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 78 22 0 100 27.3 27.2 26.9 -1.4 19.9 23.7 27.9 28.6 29.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 85 15 0 100 28.0 27.6 27.1 -1.9 14.2 17.9 28.8 29.6 30.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 88 12 0 100 27.8 27.3 26.0 -1.9 13.2 16.7 28.6 29.4 30.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 80 20 0 100 27.7 27.5 27.8 -1.7 17.1 21.1 28.3 29.1 29.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 94 6 0 100 28.6 28.0 27.0 -2.3 9.5 12.8 29.4 30.2 30.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 75 25 0 100 22.2 22.1 24.2 -1.4 21.1 24.5 22.8 23.6 24.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 73 27 0 100 27.8 27.6 29.0 -1.5 20.0 24.7 28.3 29.0 29.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------