***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 17.07.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.07.2014.-27.07.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 3 97 100 27.7 84.1 39.9 403.3 96.6 92.4 3.5 8.6 17.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 4 96 100 17.0 57.9 36.2 449.4 97.9 93.0 2.6 5.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 1 99 100 24.3 70.5 36.8 404.9 96.8 92.2 3.5 8.1 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 5 95 100 26.7 81.1 44.0 431.9 97.2 91.5 4.3 9.5 17.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 9 91 100 17.0 47.5 37.2 379.6 95.8 90.1 2.6 5.9 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 8 92 100 24.4 66.7 38.6 388.6 96.3 91.4 4.3 9.2 16.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 5 95 100 20.2 59.3 36.9 414.7 97.4 91.7 3.6 7.6 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 6 94 100 28.0 66.4 35.1 339.0 94.7 89.8 4.7 10.2 18.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 7 93 100 18.9 56.5 35.7 392.7 96.2 90.9 2.6 6.1 12.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 6 94 100 27.4 68.5 37.6 362.0 95.5 90.5 4.8 10.3 18.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 8 92 100 16.3 48.3 35.3 405.2 96.7 91.5 2.6 5.8 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 6 94 100 22.0 57.2 30.4 358.6 95.3 90.2 3.3 7.6 14.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 7 93 100 15.4 37.2 31.4 356.0 95.6 90.2 3.2 6.3 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 3 97 100 29.9 76.3 34.5 336.7 95.0 89.9 4.0 9.7 18.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 17.6 66.2 49.1 527.5 98.7 93.3 2.9 6.2 11.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 7 93 100 14.0 35.0 34.9 399.6 96.6 91.6 3.2 6.0 10.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 23.3 76.2 36.4 438.3 98.1 92.4 4.0 8.5 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 4 96 100 26.0 54.0 37.4 312.6 93.5 89.3 4.8 9.8 17.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 3 97 100 26.9 91.3 35.6 447.2 97.9 93.3 3.9 9.0 17.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 10 90 100 17.7 30.6 30.5 242.9 89.5 85.0 3.4 7.1 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 22.1 64.9 37.7 434.3 97.4 92.8 3.8 8.2 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 3 97 100 26.5 80.1 33.7 424.4 97.8 93.1 5.1 10.3 17.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 4 96 100 20.5 58.7 33.3 388.9 96.8 91.9 3.3 7.3 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 4 96 100 26.9 72.0 37.4 363.3 95.5 90.9 3.6 8.6 17.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 3 97 100 24.4 65.0 41.9 362.6 95.9 91.4 3.6 8.5 15.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 6 94 100 20.5 55.4 31.3 393.1 96.6 91.5 3.8 7.9 13.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 5 95 100 21.1 55.8 41.5 371.8 96.0 91.4 3.5 7.7 14.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 22.6 67.9 43.4 471.2 97.9 92.0 4.5 8.9 15.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 7 93 100 32.4 63.0 34.3 273.4 91.6 86.7 5.4 11.9 21.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 3 97 100 22.6 64.9 36.6 427.0 97.4 92.8 4.1 8.5 15.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------